511
FXUS63 KFGF 221749
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS INCLUDES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
THE AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ABOUT RIGHT
OVER THE GRAND FORKS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN A
LITTLE MORE CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE NEW ROCKFORD TO VALLEY CITY TO FERGUS FALLS AREAS, BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL START TO THIN AGAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. THE MAIN QUESTION MAY BE WHETHER IT
THINS BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 2 AND HIGHWAY 200 AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON, OR NOT. THERE ARE STILL ECHOES ON RADAR ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, BUT THOSE ARE LIKELY MORE DRIZZLE THAN
ACCUMULATING RAIN. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD NOTED, THERE IS
SOME VERY MINIMAL SURFACE BASED CAPE FORMING JUST EAST OF GRAND
FORKS NOW, WITH A LOT OF SURFACE VORTICITY AS WELL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE NICE AREA OF SPIN ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. SO THERE ARE STILL SOME FACTORS POINTING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, BUT THERE WERE A LOT OF
LOW CLOUDS THAT ALSO DEVELOPED BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN THESE
AREAS. THAT ACTUALLY ADDS LESS CERTAINTY FOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND
WOULD ALSO MAKE THEM HARDER TO SEE. SO WILL NOT INCREASE THE
MESSAGING ON THIS POTENTIAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE AREA OF SPIN OVER NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY INTO THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE
MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TODAY, AND
MORE SUN TO THE SOUTH. AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SUN WILL LIKELY
HAVE MORE WIND TOO, FROM THE WEST. ELSEWHERE, WIND DIRECTIONS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. RAINFALL RATES HAVE BECOME PRETTY LIGHT,
WITH MORE DRIZZLE THAN STEADY RAIN. MOST OF THIS DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS IN POPS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN AREA MOVING NORTH. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH TO FARGO-JAMESTOWN SO IDEA OF KEEPING LOW
POPS THERE SEEMS GOOD THRU MID MORNING. NDAWN RAIN SINCE 1 AM
CDT SHOWS GENERALLY 0.15 TO 0.35 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR
WITH RAIN BAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS A WELL
DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. THIS IS BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY NEAR WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE 7 AM.
WHILE NOT FORECAST, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR COLD CORE
FUNNELS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM NEAR THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO BEMIDJI AND POINTS NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. WITH A VORTICITY-RICH BOUNDARY SWINGING THROUGH THE
AREA AND SOME CAMS DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY, SOME WEAK CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AND INTERACT ON THE
BOUNDARY.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THESE FUNNELS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
GROUND. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING, AND WILL
LIKELY NOT KNOW WHETHER OR NOT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
TORNADOES WILL BE PRESENT UNTIL VERY NEAR THE TIME THEY WOULD
OCCUR (LESS THAN 6 HOURS). SHOULD THE CHANCE OF THIS POTENTIAL
HAZARD INCREASE, ADDITIONAL MESSAGING WILL COME FORTH THROUGH
PRODUCTS LIKE UPDATES WITHIN THIS AFD, HWO, SPS, AND/OR
GRAPHICAL MESSAGING.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE
US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. DRY CONDITIONS WITH THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (30% CHANCE
OF OCCURRING).
.. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
LOOKING INTO LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE NEXT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR ACTIVE
PATTERN AHEAD. THIS COMES FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH DEEP
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE
PASSAGE OF SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, WITH AN EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, A BUILDING RESERVOIR OF RICHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE FORECAST, MAINLY SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETAILS IN EXACT DETAILS FOR OUR AREA
REMAIN UNCERTAIN HOWEVER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
ANOTHER VERY TRICKY SET OF TAFS, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA RIGHT OVER KGFK. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF WIND SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS OUT THERE, AS WELL AS CLOUD AMOUNTS AND HEIGHTS. FOR
NOW, ALL THE SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF ALL
THE TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWEST RIGHT AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW, SO THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL/KFAR
AREAS. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GET A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE RISING CEILINGS AND DECREASING CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. KFAR HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERING
OUT, WITH MORE QUESTIONS AT KDVL/KTVF/KGFK AND KBJI. HOPEFULLY,
IF THE OTHER TAF SITES DON'T SCATTER OUT, THEY SHOULD AT LEAST
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE. FINALLY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWERING
CEILINGS AGAIN AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...GODON
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