712
FXUS63 KFGF 221938
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
238 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (THUNDERSTORMS) LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE 700MB WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY WILL HOLD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT, THEN FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS/DRIZZLE REMAIN LIKELY ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MARKEDLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NORTH.
TO THE SOUTH, THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AS FOR THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKER AND
WINDS MUCH MORE VARIABLE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT, THEN IT IS PROGGED TO SINK BACK SOUTHWARD
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL DIE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WHATEVER REMNANT CLOUD COVER THERE IS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING (ACROSS THE NORTH) SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAD BEEN WATCHING A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY, BUT THE TREND ON THIS ONE HAS BEEN WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH.
..LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
500MB RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE FA BY FRIDAY, TRANSITIONING INTO
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS, IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD DEVELOPS, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SPC HAS A DAY 7 OUTLOOK
GLANCING THE SOUTHERN FA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
MONDAY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY RISE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET, SO
THERE IS A DECENT NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
ANOTHER VERY TRICKY SET OF TAFS, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA RIGHT OVER KGFK. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF WIND SPEEDS AND
DIRECTIONS OUT THERE, AS WELL AS CLOUD AMOUNTS AND HEIGHTS. FOR
NOW, ALL THE SHOWER/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF ALL
THE TAF SITES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWEST RIGHT AROUND THE
SURFACE LOW, SO THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE KDVL/KFAR
AREAS. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE
DECREASING AGAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GET A LITTLE BREEZY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE RISING CEILINGS AND DECREASING CLOUD AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. KFAR HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERING
OUT, WITH MORE QUESTIONS AT KDVL/KTVF/KGFK AND KBJI. HOPEFULLY,
IF THE OTHER TAF SITES DON'T SCATTER OUT, THEY SHOULD AT LEAST
RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE. FINALLY, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWERING
CEILINGS AGAIN AT KDVL/KGFK/KTVF WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...GODON
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