492
FXUS63 KFGF 222325
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (THUNDERSTORMS) LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG HWY 2 FROM
DEVILS LAKE TOWARDS CROOKSTON AS MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW BRINGS GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH 8-9PM
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GUSTS DROP. STILL THINKING WINDS
REMAIN 15-20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WITH AN INVERSION SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HARD TO SEE ANY OF THOSE GUSTS.
LOOKING LIKE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN TOWNER/CAVALIER
COUNTIES IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN STAY LOW ENOUGH BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS OTHERWISE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE INTL BORDER. FINALLY
THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR FOG DOWNSTREAM OF THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO TOWNER COUNTY TONIGHT BUT HARD TO TELL IF THE
MODEL SIGNAL IS MORE PICKING UP ON THE LIGHT RAIN/MIST VS ACTUAL
FOG.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE 700MB WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY WILL HOLD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT, THEN FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS/DRIZZLE REMAIN LIKELY ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MARKEDLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NORTH.
TO THE SOUTH, THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AS FOR THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKER AND
WINDS MUCH MORE VARIABLE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT, THEN IT IS PROGGED TO SINK BACK SOUTHWARD
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL DIE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WHATEVER REMNANT CLOUD COVER THERE IS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING (ACROSS THE NORTH) SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAD BEEN WATCHING A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY, BUT THE TREND ON THIS ONE HAS BEEN WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH.
..LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
500MB RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE FA BY FRIDAY, TRANSITIONING INTO
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS, IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD DEVELOPS, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SPC HAS A DAY 7 OUTLOOK
GLANCING THE SOUTHERN FA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
MONDAY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY RISE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET, SO
THERE IS A DECENT NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SKIES BECOMING VFR WITH THE LAST OF THE NORTHERN CLOUDS LIFTING
THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH
25-30MPH GUSTS THROUGH 03Z AT SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS. MVFR
CEILING SAG BACK SOUTH FOR PLACES LIKE DVL/GFK/TVF TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SAGS BACK SOUTH WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
IFR SKIES FOR A PERIOD IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN
THE WORST CASE END OF GUIDANCE. MVFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH
VFR SKIES RETURNING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR
SHORTLY AFTER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON/TT
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...TT
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