112
FXUS63 KFGF 230548
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (THUNDERSTORMS) LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
AREA NEAR TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHWESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN
ARE REPORTING AND/OR SHOWING SNOW ON WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED
SENSORS. THUS, INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR PLACES LIKE TOWNER
AND CAVALIER COUNTIES. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION MAINLY DUE TO LIGHT RATES AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES. THUS NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE BORDER FOR THE TIME BEING
THROUGH STILL EXPECTING THESE TO SAG BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED AS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOW 20S IN THE NORTHERN RRV OTHERWISE A WEAKENING COLD ADVECTION
REGIME AND BUILDING NOCTURNAL INVERSION HELPING TO SUPRESS
HIGHER WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG HWY 2 FROM
DEVILS LAKE TOWARDS CROOKSTON AS MODERATE COLD ADVECTION AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW BRINGS GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH THROUGH 8-9PM
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND GUSTS DROP. STILL THINKING WINDS
REMAIN 15-20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WITH AN INVERSION SOUTH
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE HARD TO SEE ANY OF THOSE GUSTS.
LOOKING LIKE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN TOWNER/CAVALIER
COUNTIES IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN STAY LOW ENOUGH BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. RAIN SHOWERS OTHERWISE CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE INTL BORDER. FINALLY
THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR FOG DOWNSTREAM OF THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS INTO TOWNER COUNTY TONIGHT BUT HARD TO TELL IF THE
MODEL SIGNAL IS MORE PICKING UP ON THE LIGHT RAIN/MIST VS ACTUAL
FOG.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE 700MB WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT RAIN TODAY WILL HOLD
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT, THEN FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS/DRIZZLE REMAIN LIKELY ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WELL. MARKEDLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO NORTH.
TO THE SOUTH, THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD COVER AND GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. AS FOR THE NORTH, CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKER AND
WINDS MUCH MORE VARIABLE. THIS BOUNDARY MAY LIFT A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT, THEN IT IS PROGGED TO SINK BACK SOUTHWARD
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTH WILL DIE DOWN
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WHATEVER REMNANT CLOUD COVER THERE IS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING (ACROSS THE NORTH) SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAD BEEN WATCHING A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY, BUT THE TREND ON THIS ONE HAS BEEN WEAKER AND FURTHER
SOUTH.
..LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
500MB RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE FA BY FRIDAY, TRANSITIONING INTO
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. AFTER THIS, IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD DEVELOPS, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SPC HAS A DAY 7 OUTLOOK
GLANCING THE SOUTHERN FA MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR
MONDAY HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY RISE ABOVE 1.00 INCH WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET, SO
THERE IS A DECENT NORTHWARD MOISTURE SURGE. WILL BE INTERESTING
TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST OVER TAF SITES EXCLUDING KFAR.
SITES LIKE KDVL, KTVF, AND KBJI MAY IFR CEILINGS (40% CHANCE).
THESE LOWERED CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION (EXCEPT KFAR) THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LESSENS WHETHER OR NOT CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING, THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15 KT. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS
OF GUSTS TODAY, WITH KFAR HOLDING RELATIVELY HIGHEST GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS LESSEN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON/CJ/TT
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...CJ
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