543
FXUS63 KFGF 230928
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
428 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING A 40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
EARLY THIS MORNING, A STALLED MID LEVEL LOW RESIDES OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD TODAY, FEEDING COOLER AIR, CLOUDY SKIES, AND
BREEZY WINDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A A
SUBTLE, PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR RAINFALL, MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES REGION BUILDS, WITH BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE
STRONG ADVECTION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/GULF INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS
UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLES STRONGLY AGREE THAT THE BROAD TROUGHING
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION, INCLUDING SOAKING RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST, COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN PROGRESSIVE WAVES MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. WHILE LOW
IN CONFIDENCE, A CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LINGERS MOISTURE
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND COOL ENOUGH AIR TO INTRODUCE A 20% CHANCE
OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
FURTHER DETAILS BEYOND THIS REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT AT THIS TIME THE
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS IS LOW (LESS THAN 10%).
..RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY TO MONDAY
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY AGREES IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND ADVECTION INTO OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL FEATURES.
THIS WILL BRING HIGH CHANCE (GREATER THAN 70%) IN SOAKING
RAINFALL OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE. THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE AS WELL AS SURFACE FEATURES AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
WILL DICTATE JUST HOW MUCH RAINFALL OUR AREA WILL SEE. IF THE
TROUGH COMES THROUGH STRONGER/MORE CONSOLIDATED, THEN MUCH OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA HOLDS A HIGH CHANCE OF
SEEING BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DUE TO CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS. IF IT MOVES THROUGH
WEAKER/LESS ORGANIZED, THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5
INCHES IS AROUND 40%.
STRONG DYNAMICS/WIND FIELD MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
MINNESOTA WILL MINGLE WITH THE LARGE RESERVOIR OF
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEGREE OF SEVERE STORMS INTO OUR AREA, WITH
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL FAVORING AREAS FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND POINTS SOUTH FOR RELATIVELY BETTER SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL. STILL, THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA THAT IT DOES
BARE WATCHING, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST OVER TAF SITES EXCLUDING KFAR.
SITES LIKE KDVL, KTVF, AND KBJI MAY IFR CEILINGS (40% CHANCE).
THESE LOWERED CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS
THE REGION (EXCEPT KFAR) THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE LESSENS WHETHER OR NOT CEILINGS SCATTER OUT AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY.
WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING, THEN MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15 KT. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS
OF GUSTS TODAY, WITH KFAR HOLDING RELATIVELY HIGHEST GUSTS TO
AROUND 20KT. WINDS LESSEN AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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