090
FXUS63 KFGF 231949
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING A 40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FINALLY STARTING TO SLIDE TO
THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NICE SWIRL SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO NOW, AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND
IT. LIKE YESTERDAY, THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AROUND THE EDGE OF THE THICKER
STRATUS. TODAY THIS WAS MAINLY FROM DEVILS LAKE TO WAHPETON
BRECKENRIDGE TO PARK RAPIDS. AS OF MID AFTERNOON, THERE ARE
SIGNS OF DECREASING CLOUDS NOW ACROSS THIS AREA. THEREFORE IT IS
LOOKING LIKE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ARE STILL PRETTY THICK ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA,
WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FROM
BAUDETTE TO BEMIDJI OVERNIGHT. BUT THIS AREA MAY ALSO SCATTER
OUT TOO. THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER DARK,
BECOMING PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL
ANOTHER 700MB WAVE THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
GIVE OUR SOUTHEAST FA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. 500MB
RIDGING THEN LEANS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MEANING
NO PRECIPITATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
..LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ON MONDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F, WHICH ARE
PRETTY JUICY FOR LATE APRIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO LOOK
TO RISE OVER 1 INCH WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH FROM A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET. MONDAY IS STILL A LONG WAYS
OUT, BUT SPC DOES HAVE AN OUTLOOKED AREA (FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER) BRUSHING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FA. THE DETAILS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO MOVE UP THROUGH
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WHERE THE FRONTS
AND BOUNDARIES END OF BEING ON MONDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
HOW ANY CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WITH THE STRONG
MOISTURE FEED, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A WETTING/SOAKING
RAIN (1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
TAFS REMAIN TRICKY, MAINLY DUE TO HOW CLOUD CONDITIONS PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD HEIGHTS HAVE MAINLY RISEN INTO THE
MVFR RANGE NOW, AND THEY SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO VFR RANGES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KTVF AND KBJI WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
TRICKY, AS THEY MAY STAY MVFR AND THE CLOUDS MAY STOP MOVING
EASTWARD AND LINGER AT THESE SITES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME LIGHT BY DARK. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL,
HAVE TO KEEP FOG IN MIND, BUT AT THIS POINT THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD
ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...GODON
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