820
FXUS63 KFGF 240311
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1011 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING A 40% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE, WHILE AN AREA OF
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE 40S CURRENTLY AND WILL DROP TO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. AREAS THAT HAVE THIS CHANCE ARE IN
NORTHWESTERN MN WHERE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS REACH NEAR ZERO
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SYSTEM TO TRACK
SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK APART THIS EVENING ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. AREAS IN NW MN STILL HAVE
MORE OVC CLOUDS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. NOTED ON
WEBCAMS ARE A FEW SPRINKLES UP IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
BY KITTSON AND ROSEAU COUNTIES. CLOUDS COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET, WITH ANY OTHER RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISHING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WHERE IN THE 50S TODAY AND
WILL DROP TO THE 30S OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FINALLY STARTING TO SLIDE TO
THE EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NICE SWIRL SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO NOW, AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND
IT. LIKE YESTERDAY, THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY AROUND THE EDGE OF THE THICKER
STRATUS. TODAY THIS WAS MAINLY FROM DEVILS LAKE TO WAHPETON
BRECKENRIDGE TO PARK RAPIDS. AS OF MID AFTERNOON, THERE ARE
SIGNS OF DECREASING CLOUDS NOW ACROSS THIS AREA. THEREFORE IT IS
LOOKING LIKE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS ARE STILL PRETTY THICK ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA,
WHERE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER FROM
BAUDETTE TO BEMIDJI OVERNIGHT. BUT THIS AREA MAY ALSO SCATTER
OUT TOO. THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER DARK,
BECOMING PRETTY LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL
ANOTHER 700MB WAVE THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
GIVE OUR SOUTHEAST FA A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. 500MB
RIDGING THEN LEANS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MEANING
NO PRECIPITATION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
..LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE 500MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ON MONDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F, WHICH ARE
PRETTY JUICY FOR LATE APRIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALSO LOOK
TO RISE OVER 1 INCH WITH A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH FROM A GOOD LOW LEVEL JET. MONDAY IS STILL A LONG WAYS
OUT, BUT SPC DOES HAVE AN OUTLOOKED AREA (FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER) BRUSHING OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FA. THE DETAILS WILL DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW THAT LOOKS TO MOVE UP THROUGH
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WHERE THE FRONTS
AND BOUNDARIES END OF BEING ON MONDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
HOW ANY CONVECTION PLAYS OUT. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WITH THE STRONG
MOISTURE FEED, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A WETTING/SOAKING
RAIN (1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
BKN TO OVC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER CEILINGS
WITHIN NORTHWESTERN MN. CEILINGS ARE IFR WITHIN TVF AND BJI
WHILE DVL, FAR, AND GFK ARE VFR. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK
APART AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN REACHED AND THE SUN WILL START
TO SET THIS EVENING. SCT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR ALL STIES BY 04-06Z. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 5-10KTS FOR
EACH SITE BY 17-20Z. RAIN MOVES INTO THE FAR AREA END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SPENDER
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...SPENDER
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