282
FXUS63 KFGF 240829
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCLUDING A 60% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND EASTERN ND AT
08Z. THERE IS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWESTERN MN. IN THIS AREA,
PARTICULARLY NW MINNESOTA WHICH CLEARED OUT LATE IN THE DAY
AREAS OF GROUND FOG HAS FORMED. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO MID
MORNING OR UNTIL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVE IN AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS STOPPED. WE ARE SEEING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE INTO DVL-VALLEY CITY AREA AT 08Z AND LIKELY WILL
CONITNUE TO PROGRESS ENE THRU THE EARLY MORNING, SO THAT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY A MOSTLY CLOUDY OR AT BEST PARTLY SUNNY SKY
WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL BRUSH FAR SE ND/WC MN MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING
BUT WITH MAIN MOISTURE AND T-STORMS WELL TO OUR SOUTH RAIN
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL....TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG SD
BORDER.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT BEHIND TODAYS WAVE AND FRIDAY WILL BE
THE SUNNIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW-
MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SATURDAY.
500 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY LATE AND
UPPER FLOW ALOFT TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
INITIALLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING 700 MB MOISTURE.
..SOAKING RAINS AND 60 PCT CHC OF T-STORMS SUNDAY-MONDAY
CALIFORNIA 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AND BE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA 00Z
TUE. BEFORE THIS 500 MB WAVE REACHES THIS POINT...SUNDAY WILL
850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS FORM THE SSW TRANSPORT MOISTURE AT THE
850 MB LEVEL INTO THE AREA AND PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 0.80 INCH
SUN AFTN. MUCAPES WILL REACH OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG THE SD BORDER
SUN AFTN/NIGHT BUT FOCUS FOR MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS DO LOOK
TO OUR SOUTH AS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SFC LOW MOVE FROM PIERRE
AREA TOWARD WATERTOWN WITH SFC WARM FRONT UP ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. 850 MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE 850 MB LOW MORE IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING AN 850 MB WARM FRONT MORE
NORTH INTO OUR AREA AND FOCUS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO A
LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA AS 850 MB WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL
JET/AND INCREASED 850 MB AND SFC LAYER MOISTURE AIDS IN THE
DEVEOLOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD T-STORMS...FOCUSED MID EVENING SUNDAY
THRU MONDAY MORNING. COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORM SUNDAY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SE ND NEAR THE 850 MB
WARM FRONT AND LOW AND NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. WITH THAT
RISK OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM SLIDING EAST MONDAY MORE INTO
CENTRAL MN.
PWATS PEAK AROUND 1 INCH IN SE ND INTO MN WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF FROM WPC SEEMS REASONABLE AND NBM PROBS
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 7 AM
TUESDAY OF 50 PERCENT IN SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT EACH SITE, BUT BJI WHICH STILL SITS
UNDERNEATH MVFR CEILINGS. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR TVF AND BJI AS
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. THIS
WOULD RESULTS IN SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. VFR CONDITIONS
BY MID MORNING FOR EACH TAF LOCATION, WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR FAR THROUGH 03-05Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPENDER
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