177
FXUS63 KFGF 241444
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
944 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCLUDING A 60% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
THE MORNING FOG ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS
AROUND THIEF RIVER FALLS, FOSSTON, AND BEMIDJI. MOST AREAS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, SHOULD SEE SOME MORNING SUN FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST
TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH WEBCAMS CONFIRMING IT IS MOSTLY GROUND
FOG AND FAVORED IN LOWER LYING AREAS. UPDATED SPS THRU ABOUT
1430 UTC. OTHERWISE SKY COVER NOT INCREASING AS FAST AS IT WAS
ANTICIPATING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND EASTERN ND AT
08Z. THERE IS AN AREA OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EASTERN ND/NORTHWESTERN MN. IN THIS AREA,
PARTICULARLY NW MINNESOTA WHICH CLEARED OUT LATE IN THE DAY
AREAS OF GROUND FOG HAS FORMED. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO MID
MORNING OR UNTIL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVE IN AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS STOPPED. WE ARE SEEING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE INTO DVL-VALLEY CITY AREA AT 08Z AND LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENE THRU THE EARLY MORNING, SO THAT FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY A MOSTLY CLOUDY OR AT BEST PARTLY SUNNY
SKY WILL OCCUR TODAY. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL BRUSH FAR SE ND/WC MN MAINLY THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING BUT WITH MAIN MOISTURE AND T-STORMS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL....TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
ALONG SD BORDER.
SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT BEHIND TODAYS WAVE AND FRIDAY WILL BE
THE SUNNIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AND TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW-
MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH WINDS PICK UP SATURDAY.
500 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY LATE AND
UPPER FLOW ALOFT TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TRANSPORT
INITIALLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING 700 MB MOISTURE.
..SOAKING RAINS AND 60 PCT CHC OF T-STORMS SUNDAY-MONDAY
CALIFORNIA 500 MB WILL WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AND BE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA 00Z
TUE. BEFORE THIS 500 MB WAVE REACHES THIS POINT...SUNDAY WILL
850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS FORM THE SSW TRANSPORT MOISTURE AT THE
850 MB LEVEL INTO THE AREA AND PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 0.80 INCH
SUN AFTN. MUCAPES WILL REACH OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG THE SD BORDER
SUN AFTN/NIGHT BUT FOCUS FOR MORE SURFACE BASED STORMS DO LOOK
TO OUR SOUTH AS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SFC LOW MOVE FROM PIERRE
AREA TOWARD WATERTOWN WITH SFC WARM FRONT UP ALONG THE SD/ND
BORDER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN. 850 MB WINDS OF 35-45 KTS
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE 850 MB LOW MORE IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING AN 850 MB WARM FRONT MORE
NORTH INTO OUR AREA AND FOCUS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO A
LARGE PART OF THE FCST AREA AS 850 MB WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL
JET/AND INCREASED 850 MB AND SFC LAYER MOISTURE AIDS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD T-STORMS...FOCUSED MID EVENING SUNDAY
THRU MONDAY MORNING. COULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORM SUNDAY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY SE ND NEAR THE 850 MB
WARM FRONT AND LOW AND NORTH OF THE SFC WARM FRONT. WITH THAT
RISK OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM SLIDING EAST MONDAY MORE INTO
CENTRAL MN.
PWATS PEAK AROUND 1 INCH IN SE ND INTO MN WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST QPF FROM WPC SEEMS REASONABLE AND NBM PROBS
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IN THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 7 AM
TUESDAY OF 50 PERCENT IN SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025
DEALING WITH GROUND FOG THRU 14Z OR SO WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
VSBYS DEPENDING ON WHERE AWOS SENSOR IS LOCATED OR WHERE RUNWAYS
ARE LOCATED. THIS WILL BURN OFF BUT WINDS ARE NEAR CALM SO SOME
MAY LINGER PAST 14Z FOR AN HOUR. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE AN
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER THRU THE DAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND TO START THE DAY, BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST OR NORTH
THIS AFTN/EVE UNDER 8 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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