245
FXUS63 KFGF 242015
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
315 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCLUDING A 60% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE A COUPLE DIFFERENT AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON, THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT, WHILE THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION, MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. THERE WAS FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. IF THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO MORE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE FOG POTENTIAL, SO WILL NOT MENTION
IT AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING A LOT MORE SUN FOR FRIDAY, AND THERE
SHOULDN'T BE AS MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS THERE HAS BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
..WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS GETTING A LITTLE
MORE IN FOCUS NOW. AN 850MB JET KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
DAKOTAS AND MONTANA BORDER, THEN SLIDES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT BEGIN NEAR 0.50 INCHES IN THAT
AREA DO RISE TO AROUND 0.80 INCHES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, DON'T SEE A LOT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD.
THINK CONVECTION MAY FORM TO THE WEST OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH DYING SHOWERS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THIS FA ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO KICK IN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS
TIME RIGHT OVER THE FA, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.80 INCHES
START TO COME UP A LITTLE MORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME (GETTING
CLOSER TO 1 INCH). HOWEVER, THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL
DOESN'T LOOK THAT GOOD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
(POSSIBLY 50 TO 60 KNOTS) SETS UP SOUTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY BE HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES, AND THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FINALLY STARTS LOOKING BETTER. SUNDAY NIGHT
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED, NOT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SURFACE
SETUP. MOVING INTO MONDAY, ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION TAPERS
OFF, THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL GET MORE IMPORTANT. BEING 4 DAYS
OUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING IT SOMEWHERE
IN THE SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA REGION, LIFTING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
THE DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FA,
MAINLY FROM FERGUS FALLS TOWARD WADENA. AFTER NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION, DAYTIME CONVECTION ALWAYS DEPENDS ON HOW FAST CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER. MONDAY HIGHS COULD
POTENTIALLY GET INTO THE LOW 70S AROUND FERGUS FALLS WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F. SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE SUNNY AREAS. THEREFORE,
EXPECT A CUMULUS LAYER AT KGFK/KTVF AND KBJI, AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE MID CLOUDS AS WELL (SCT-
BKN080) THAT CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD. AS THESE MOVE IN,
THEY MAY SUPPRESS SOME OF THE CUMULUS THAT HAVE FORMED. CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE WAS
SOME FOG THIS MORNING UNDER SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES, SO THAT WILL
HAVE TO MONITORED AGAIN. IT DOES LOOK SUNNIER ON FRIDAY WITH
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...GODON
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