136
FXUS63 KFGF 311003
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
503 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ALL POPULATION GROUPS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- 40% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPACT
H5 LOW CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING,
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT, BRINGING MULTIPLE
LAYERS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SURFACE SMOKE COULD BECOME DENSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITY AT TIMES, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR
LESS. GIVEN THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS, WE ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY ONWARD,
LOOK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
..SMOKE IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING A FAVORABLE
SCENARIO FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DENSE SURFACE SMOKE IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES IN
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO
1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, WITH WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
ALREADY SHOWING 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE IS CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MODERATE
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ALLOWING
MODELED MUCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODE IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY FAVORS A MIXED OR LINEAR MODE.
AS SUCH, A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL IS JUSTIFIED, WITH PERHAPS A LOWER (BUT STILL EXISTENT)
CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH
THE TRACK OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTS THE CHANCE FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN BETTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PW
VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND WILL
CHALLENGE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND,
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
INCH OR MORE PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
ISOLATED TOTALS, DUE TO CONVECTION, COULD BE HIGHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF THE DENSEST SMOKE
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN WESTERN ND
AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, MOST VISIBILITIES SEEM TO SOUR INTO
MVFR AS SOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH PERIODS OF LOWER
VISIBILITY INTO IFR. THEREFORE, KEPT MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL
SITES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INTRODUCED A TEMPO AT KDVL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING
HOURS. THINKING HERE IS MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING UPSTREAM, THE
DENSEST SMOKE WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, LASTING IN
PATCHES FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY PREVAILING AT MVFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FRONT LOSES SOME OF ITS POTENCY
AS IT PUSHES INTO KGFK, KTVF AND KFAR. THIS MEANS SMOKE MAY NOT
COME IN AS DENSE, POTENTIALLY KEEPING VISIBILITY JUST ABOVE
IFR. THEREFORE, DID NOT ADD AN IFR TEMPO AT THOSE SITES. IT
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF SMOKE CONTINUES
PUSHING EAST WITH MORE POTENCY THEN CURRENTLY THOUGHT. FOR KBJI,
SMOKE WILL BE TIED TO A DIFFERENT SOURCE, A FIRE NORTHEAST OF
WINNIPEG. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING IF THE
DENSEST PART OF THE SMOKE PLUME ENDS UP OVER THE TERMINAL OR
JUST EAST. MAINTAINED MVFR THERE, BUT IF WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY, VISIBILITIES FROM SMOKE MAY BE IMPACTED MORE
SEVERELY THEN THE TAF CURRENTLY FORECASTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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