287
FXUS63 KFGF 311751
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ALL POPULATION GROUPS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- 40% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO RISE AS MIXING INCREASES. AS A RESULT,
THE PROBABILITY FOR A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS RAPIDLY DECREASING
AND NO LONGER IN THE REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR
VISIBILITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SLOWLY WITH SMOKE LINGERING
AROUND INHIBITING RADIATIONAL HEATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES
RANGING BETWEEN 0.5 MILES AND 2 MILES INTERMITTENTLY, PARTICULARLY
IN THE WESTERN REGIONS OF THE CWA. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. SMOKE IS NOT DENSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS NOT SUPPORTING 1/4SM
VISIBILITY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF
IT IS NECESSARY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS VERY LOW (10%) AS
MIXING SHOULD RAISE THE VISIBILITY AT LEAST SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SURFACE SMOKE IS ALREADY STARTING TO BE OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, WITH DEVILS LAKE REPORTING 1
MILE VISIBILITY AND LANGDON DOWN TO 0.5 MILES. LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD SMOKE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
IMPACTED SLIGHTLY WHERE THE SMOKE IS MOST DENSE. AT THIS TIME,
TEMPS REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPACT
H5 LOW CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING,
WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALOFT, BRINGING MULTIPLE
LAYERS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SURFACE SMOKE COULD BECOME DENSE
ENOUGH TO IMPACT VISIBILITY AT TIMES, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1 MILE OR
LESS. GIVEN THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS, WE ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS
HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE ON SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FOR TUESDAY ONWARD,
LOOK FOR A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
..SMOKE IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, CREATING A FAVORABLE
SCENARIO FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR DENSE SURFACE SMOKE IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES IN
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO
1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, WITH WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
ALREADY SHOWING 1-2 MILES VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE IS CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MODERATE
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, ALLOWING
MODELED MUCAPE VALUES TO CLIMB INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODE IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY FAVORS A MIXED OR LINEAR MODE.
AS SUCH, A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL IS JUSTIFIED, WITH PERHAPS A LOWER (BUT STILL EXISTENT)
CHANCE OF A TORNADO. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH
THE TRACK OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTS THE CHANCE FOR
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN BETTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PW
VALUES OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND WILL
CHALLENGE CURRENT RECORDS FOR THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND,
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED MONDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME, THERE REMAINS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1
INCH OR MORE PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
ISOLATED TOTALS, DUE TO CONVECTION, COULD BE HIGHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SMOKE. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, VISIBILITIES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE, BUT
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN AT DVL/GFK FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. AS WE PROGRESS TO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
VISIBILITIES MAY START TO DROP ONCE AGAIN AS MIXING DECREASES.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR DESPITE LOW VISIBILITIES, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS HIGHER LEVEL SMOKE PUSHES IN AS WELL.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SHIFT TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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