919
FXUS63 KFGF 010855
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ALL
POPULATION GROUPS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- 30% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING, MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE, MAINTAINING THE
PRESENCE OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WIDESPREAD 90
DEGREE READINGS MAY BE INHIBITED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WILDFIRE
SMOKE. HEADING INTO MONDAY, A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS BACK TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY INTO MONDAY
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. VISIBILITY THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 MILES
PREVAILING VISIBILITY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS COULD INCREASE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
H5 RIDGING PUSHES TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A RELATIVELY
STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT, MONDAY. THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE FRONT PUTS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON IN THE COOL SECTOR BY
MIDDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE WARM SECTOR REACH UPWARDS OF 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, MODE LOOKS TO FAVOR LINEAR
OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY DISCRETE. WHILE ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, THE
PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP RESIDENCE TIME
RELATIVELY SHORT; HOWEVER, HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD BRING ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 1 OR MORE INCHES TO SOME AREAS. THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS
BEING A WIDESPREAD SCENARIO IS GENERALLY LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS; HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR THOSE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
REMAINS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE THROUGH SUNDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY UNDER 3SM AS WELL AS CEILINGS INTO
THIS RANGE WHERE SMOKE IS DENSEST.
THROUGH 03Z, THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA LOCATIONS LIKE KDVL; HOWEVER, AS NIGHTTIME SURFACE
INVERSION BUILDS TONIGHT, THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 1SM, MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z-14Z. AS
DAYTIME MIXING RESTARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SMOKE DENSITY NEAR THE
SURFACE SHOULD LESSEN, HELPING MOST LIKELY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN THE 3-6SM RANGE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 15Z, TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15KT LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
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