474
FXUS63 KFGF 011748
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ALL
POPULATION GROUPS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- 30% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VISIBILITIES REMAIN LOWEST IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SITES
ARE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 MILES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING IMPROVES, AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
DOES PUSH OUT THE HIGHER NEAR SURFACE SMOKE TO THE EAST, BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHER THAN THAT, QUIET WEATHER
PERSISTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY ABOVE 1 MILE SO
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN BE ANTICIPATED FROM HAZY/SMOKY
CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN THAT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TODAY
INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 MILES.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS SMOKE IN THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT HELPS
CLEAR AT LEAST SOME OF IT. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS MORNING, MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE, MAINTAINING THE
PRESENCE OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WIDESPREAD 90
DEGREE READINGS MAY BE INHIBITED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WILDFIRE
SMOKE. HEADING INTO MONDAY, A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPS BACK TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY INTO MONDAY
NEAR SURFACE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. VISIBILITY THIS MORNING IS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY
MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD REPORTS ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 MILES
PREVAILING VISIBILITY. SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS COULD INCREASE MONDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
H5 RIDGING PUSHES TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A RELATIVELY
STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA, WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT, MONDAY. THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE FRONT PUTS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ON IN THE COOL SECTOR BY
MIDDAY, WITH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE WARM SECTOR REACH UPWARDS OF 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
RANGE, WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, MODE LOOKS TO FAVOR LINEAR
OR PERHAPS BRIEFLY DISCRETE. WHILE ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, THE
PRIMARY RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP RESIDENCE TIME
RELATIVELY SHORT; HOWEVER, HIGH RAINFALL RATES COULD BRING ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 1 OR MORE INCHES TO SOME AREAS. THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS
BEING A WIDESPREAD SCENARIO IS GENERALLY LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS; HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR THOSE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
REMAINS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUSED BY NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSLATION
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW FOR NW
MN IS HOW LOW VISIBILITIES GET AS THIS CONCENTRATION SHIFTS
EASTWARD. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, FOR NOW IT HAS BEEN KEPT TO
BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS EXIT THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY. THERE IS HIGH SPREAD IN POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS BETWEEN
330-090 TOMORROW MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT TVF/FAR/GFK, SO BARE
THAT IN MIND WHEN LOOKING AT THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL AND SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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