794
FXUS63 KFGF 011951
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
251 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE CONTINUES TODAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ALL
POPULATION GROUPS.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
- 30% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..SYNOPSIS
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES
WIDESPREAD SMOKE ALOFT AND AREAS OF SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE,
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1-4 MILES. THE GREATEST
VISIBILITY ISSUES HAVE BEEN IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, THE LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE IS
HAVING A FAIRLY SLOW PROGRESSION RIGHT NOW, WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM MINOT THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT, SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA. FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH A
FASTER FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, GUIDANCE BRINGS IN ANOTHER ROUND
OF SMOKE, ALTHOUGH NEAR-SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS AREN'T NEARLY AS
HIGH AS THEY WERE THIS WEEKEND, SO THE PROBABILITY FOR
VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE LOWER. THEREAFTER, FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SO THE PROBABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
ML AND AI BASED CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES, ALTHOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR IMPACTS.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY
MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AHEAD OF (OR ALONG) THE COLD FRONT. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS
CONVERGED A TAD ON LOCATION, THERE STILL REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD
IN WHETHER OR NOT WE STILL HAVE IT IN OUR AREA DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING. WHAT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IS THE THIN DEWPOINT
MAXIMUM JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY RELATIVE
TO THE SURROUNDINGS. THAT SAID, THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN HOW
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL END UP BEING (RANGES BETWEEN THE
10TH PERCENTILE OF LOW 50S TO THE 90TH OF MID 60S, WITH A
GENERAL IQR BETWEEN ~55-62). THIS IS BECAUSE OF CONVECTION THAT
SHOULD FIRE THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND CREATE
VERY STRONG OUTFLOW FORCING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD. A SURFACE
LOW RESPONSE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS CAMS,
SO THIS LIKELY WILL DIVERT THE BEST INSTABILITY FROM OUR AREA.
IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO FRUITION, THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WILL BE LOWER, WHILE A LACK OF A SURFACE PRESSURE RESPONSE (OR A
STRONG ONE AT LEAST) WOULD BRING BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR AREA.
REGARDLESS OF INSTABILITY, ONE THING THAT ISN'T UNCERTAIN IS THE
FORCING BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH ANY RESIDUAL
CAPPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BY AROUND 18-21Z AND PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD. WITH THE
STRONG FORCING AND LARGE FRONT-PARALLEL COMPONENT TO THE SHEAR,
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS RUNNING INTO
EACH OTHER AND CREATING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS.
WEAK UPPER FLOW WHERE STORMS FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY DRY MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE
RISK FOR OUR AREA TO A FAIRLY SHORT TIMEFRAME (BARRING FRONTAL
STALL, ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO
CONSISTENT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT). THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TERRIBLE
IMPRESSIVE FOR TORNADOES, SO THE GENERAL THINKING IS IN LINE
WITH PREVIOUS MESSAGING: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
PING-PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOME OUTLIER CAMS DO FIRE OFF
SUPERCELLS/UH TRACKS FROM A WEAK MESOSCALE RESPONSE, BUT GIVEN
THE LIMITED CAMS DISPLAYING THIS WITHIN THE HREF ENSEMBLE, THIS
APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY LOW PREDICTABILITY SCENARIO.
..RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GENERAL FRONTAL POSITION BY NOON TOMORROW
RANGES FROM AS FAR NORTHWEST AS AROUND FARGO TO AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS ALEXANDRIA. THE FRONTAL ORIENTATION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, WITH ANYONE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE STORMS. AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
JUST BEHIND IT, MUCAPE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT, HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, WITH DECREASING
THUNDER PROBABILITIES AS YOU HEAD FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE GENERAL RANGE ON THE
NORTHWEST END OF 0.10-0.50" AND THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH A 30% CHANCE TO EXCEED AN INCH. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS AT
YOUR LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THAT COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WHERE IT IS BY PEAK HEATING TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW, IT
APPEARS IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE THROUGH FARGO UP THROUGH BAUDETTE
SOMETIME AFTER 3 PM. REMEMBER, VARIATIONS IN HOW FAST IT MOVES
THROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE YOUR LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT, SO PAY ATTENTION TO CONTINUED UPDATES AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND WILL BE CLEARED OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUSED BY NEAR
SURFACE SMOKE. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN EVENTUAL TRANSLATION
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE QUESTION RIGHT NOW FOR NW
MN IS HOW LOW VISIBILITIES GET AS THIS CONCENTRATION SHIFTS
EASTWARD. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, FOR NOW IT HAS BEEN KEPT TO
BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS EXIT THE AREA.
A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 00Z SHIFTING WINDS TO
NORTHERLY. THERE IS HIGH SPREAD IN POTENTIAL DIRECTIONS BETWEEN
330-090 TOMORROW MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT TVF/FAR/GFK, SO BARE
THAT IN MIND WHEN LOOKING AT THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP NEAR DEVILS LAKE BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL AND SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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