077
FXUS63 KFGF 020937
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
437 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE REMAINS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HEADING
INTO TUESDAY, NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FLOW,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MID WEEK ONWARD.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING
ARE LIKELY TO PROVIDE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MOST LIKELY
MODE EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR. MUCAPE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN RECENT MODEL
SOUNDINGS, WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS, ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL UP
TO 1 INCH REMAINS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THIS IS WHERE THE FRONT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE BEST DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
SCENARIO FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO; HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL
CAPPING AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NUMEROUS STORMS NEARBY, CELL
INTERACTIONS FAVOR MORE CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS.
..HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TUES MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT COULD
ALLOW LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITY FOR 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN IS STILL ABOUT 30 PERCENT,
BUT CONSIDERING THE NATURE OF CONVECTION, ANY SCENARIO THAT SLOWS
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL LOCALLY INCREASE THOSE CHANCES.
FOR EXAMPLE,THE 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS (10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE)
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THICKEST AREA OF SMOKE HAS MOVED THROUGH KFAR AND KGFK.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING AS THE BAND MOVES EAST. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH FOR MONDAY
AT SITES FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION TO SPARKING OFF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT, ANOTHER BATCH OF DENSE SMOKE WILL POUR DOWN
FROM CANADA. THE DENSEST SMOKE LOOKS TO BE AT KTVF AND KBJI.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ALLOWED FOR AN IFR VISIBILITY TEMPO TO BE
ADDED TO THE KTVF TAF FOR MONDAY MORNING. AN IFR TEMPO WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AT KBJI ONCE THE TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR FOR
SOMETIME MONDAY AFTERNOON. KFAR AND KGFK WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF
THIS ROUND OF SMOKE. THEREFORE, DID NOT ADD ANY IFR VISIBILITIES
AT THOSE SITES, INSTEAD PREVAILED MVFR. THESE TWO SITES WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE SMOKE PLUME BECOMES VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE MONDAY MORNING, AS IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER,
IF IFR CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD BE MUCH BRIEFER HERE
THEN AT THE MN TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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