344
FXUS63 KFGF 021808
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
108 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY SMOKE IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE REMAINS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH OF RAIN
IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN ADDITION TO STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WILL FACILITATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO SYNOPTIC ASCENT, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING WITH
IT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRANSPORT ARE FAIRLY MEAGER FOR OUR CWA, SO
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED SEVERE CONVECTION IS MUCH LOWER.
PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR MORE DOWNBURST WINDS THANKS TO THE DRIER
THERMAL PROFILES, AS INDICATED BY DCAPE APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING
1000 ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO SOLID
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS, SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST
HAZARD TODAY. HAIL PRODUCTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS, BUT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THANKS TO LARGELY FRONT PARALLEL SHEAR
AND STRONG FORCING LIKELY CREATING MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. WITH
THE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AND FRONT PARALLEL SHEAR, THERE DOES
EXIST A SCENARIO FOR LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF PRECIPITATION, HENCE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES IN WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS AS EARLY AS 2 PM,
BUT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BETWEEN 3 AND 6
PM, LEAVING OUR AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS THE FRONT EXITS OUR AREA
AND SEVERE CONVECTION WITH IT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. WITH
THIS SYSTEM EXITING, THERE IS A SOLID SIGNAL FOR SMOKE TO ALSO
DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE WITH IT. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY
QUIET THEREAFTER WITH LIMITED FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO ASCERTAIN SPECIFIC THREATS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY (AND BRIEFLY
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT CROSSES). WIND GUSTS SHOULD MAX OUT
BETWEEN THE 25-35 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE UNLIKELY AT THE FORECAST TAF SITES.
THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, GIVING WAY
TO MOSTLY IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. CEILINGS REGARDLESS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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