989
FXUS63 KFGF 030458
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1158 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMOKE IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EAST, WITH MORE POCKETS OF
CLEARING IN ND. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED. THERE ARE
STILL POCKETS OF SMOKE REDUCING VIS 5-7SM IN SOME PARTS OF OUR
CWA, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED
IMPROVING TREND AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST IN ND. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO NEAR TERM TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS NOW OUTSIDE OUR CWA. THERE ARE STILL SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THEY ARE ON TRACK TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING 40-45
MPH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN RRV WHERE THE STRONGEST CAA IS STILL
HELPING MIXING HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2HR DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME MIXING, THE REGION OF TIGHTER GRADIENT/CAA PUSHING OUT
OF THE VALLEY, AND FLOW SHIFTING FROM THE FAVORABLE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE WEST IN THE VALLEY (SAME TRENDS BEING OBSERVED
FARTHER NORTH).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY IN ADDITION TO STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WILL FACILITATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO SYNOPTIC ASCENT, A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING WITH
IT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRANSPORT ARE FAIRLY MEAGER FOR OUR CWA, SO
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED SEVERE CONVECTION IS MUCH LOWER.
PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR MORE DOWNBURST WINDS THANKS TO THE DRIER
THERMAL PROFILES, AS INDICATED BY DCAPE APPROACHING AND EXCEEDING
1000 ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 0-3KM SHEAR IS ALSO SOLID
EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS, SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGEST
HAZARD TODAY. HAIL PRODUCTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS, BUT SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS
APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THANKS TO LARGELY FRONT PARALLEL SHEAR
AND STRONG FORCING LIKELY CREATING MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. WITH
THE MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AND FRONT PARALLEL SHEAR, THERE DOES
EXIST A SCENARIO FOR LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF PRECIPITATION, HENCE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES IN WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS AS EARLY AS 2 PM,
BUT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BETWEEN 3 AND 6
PM, LEAVING OUR AREA SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AS THE FRONT EXITS OUR AREA
AND SEVERE CONVECTION WITH IT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. WITH
THIS SYSTEM EXITING, THERE IS A SOLID SIGNAL FOR SMOKE TO ALSO
DIMINISH AT THE SURFACE WITH IT. THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY
QUIET THEREAFTER WITH LIMITED FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO ASCERTAIN SPECIFIC THREATS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST, WITH IMPACTS FROM SMOKE DECREASING.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF DROPS TO 3-6SM THROUGH
THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DECREASING AND
SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...DJR
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