281
FXUS63 KFGF 031725
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE LAYER OF SMOKE THAT WAS COMING INTO THE REGION HAS
THINNED OUT, AND IS JUST PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT HAZE TO THE
SKY. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP, BUT WIDELY SCATTERED
AND CURRENTLY NOT IMPACTFUL. TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, TOPPING OUT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER UP FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AS WELL AS SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE COMING IN FROM THE
WEST. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT SMOKE SHOULD STAY HIGH LEVEL AND
NOT IMPACT THE SURFACE, AND SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY WORKING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST SEEING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE AREA. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED THIS UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S COLD
FRONT. LOOK FOR BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 MPH,
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
H5 TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO THE HUDSON
BAY AREA, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW IN THE
COMING DAYS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF 3
SHORTWAVES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE IN
THE FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING SUNDAY.
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
..AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
REGARDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCAPE
PEAKS JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING, WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE 0-3 KM SHEAR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE
NEAR OR JUST SUB-SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL, THE CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LOW
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING LIGHTNING AND
SUB SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL SMOKE.
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE STARTED POPPING UP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP
LOOK TO BE ABOVE 5000 FT. WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET, THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND 10 KTS FROM A 240 TO 300 DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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