747
FXUS63 KFGF 031935
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH SEVERE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT SEEM
MINIMAL. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SD/NEB INTO MN BY
FRIDAY WILL HELP TURN FLOW NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY, WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. AN UPPER LOW DIVING
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
..SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SWINGING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT HUGE, THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR BLIPS DEVELOPING FROM FARGO TO
BEMIDJI IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. MU CAPE IS ONLY AROUND 100-200
J/KG, BUT THE CLOUD PHASE DISTINCTION SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING
SOME ICE FORMATION AT A FEW OF THE TOPS. DON'T THINK THERE WILL
BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND DEFINITELY DON'T EXPECT
SEVERE IMPACTS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TOMORROW. NBM MEAN IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MEAN
CAPE VALUES, UNDER 400 J/KG, BUT A FEW OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
HAVE OUTLIERS A BIT ON THE MORE UNSTABLE SIDE, BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. THE TOP END OF THAT RANGE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE, BUT EVEN
WITH CAPE VALUES STAYING IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS INSTEAD OF
QUADRUPLE, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. NBM PROBABILITIES
ARE AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SOME SPOTS
TOMORROW EVENING. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE IMPACTS
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT LIGHTING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL SMOKE.
A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE STARTED POPPING UP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS, BUT ANY CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP
LOOK TO BE ABOVE 5000 FT. WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET, THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND 10 KTS FROM A 240 TO 300 DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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