783
FXUS63 KFGF 040302
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1002 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A
FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
WINDS HAVE DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS ALSO
DISSIPATING FOR THE EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MINUS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ARRIVING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SHOWERS NEVER REALLY MANAGED TO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WHAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR TO COMPETE WITH DESPITE THE
STEEP NEAR SFC LAPSE RATES. OVERALL LOOKING TO WINDS TO DROP
BETWEEN 7-9PM WITH CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT CLEAR
SKIES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES YET AGAIN TOMORROW PRIMARILY BETWEEN
HWY 2 AND I94/HWY10.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH SEVERE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT SEEM
MINIMAL. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SD/NE INTO MN BY
FRIDAY WILL HELP TURN FLOW NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY, WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. AN UPPER LOW DIVING
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
..SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SWINGING
THROUGH EASTERN ND. WHILE MOISTURE IS NOT HUGE, THERE HAVE BEEN
SOME TOWERING CU AND A FEW RADAR BLIPS DEVELOPING FROM FARGO TO
BEMIDJI IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. MU CAPE IS ONLY AROUND 100-200
J/KG, BUT THE DAY CLOUD PHASE DISTINCTION SATELLITE LOOP IS
SHOWING SOME ICE FORMATION AT A FEW OF THE TOPS. DON'T THINK
THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND DEFINITELY
DON'T EXPECT SEVERE IMPACTS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL MN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH TOMORROW. NBM MEAN IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MEAN
CAPE VALUES, UNDER 400 J/KG, BUT A FEW OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
HAVE OUTLIERS A BIT ON THE MORE UNSTABLE SIDE, BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG. THE TOP END OF THAT RANGE IS PROBABLY OVERDONE, BUT EVEN
WITH CAPE VALUES STAYING IN THE 100S INSTEAD OF 1000+, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 40 TO
50 PERCENT FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN SOME SPOTS TOMORROW
EVENING. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE IMPACTS GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH COULD PUT A DAMPER ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING AFTER 7-9PM
DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS GO LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS BACK ABOVE 10 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
GUSTS NEARING 20KTS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z WITH ALL
SITES SEEING AT LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS. CIGS
STAYING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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