135
FXUS63 KFGF 040918
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WEST TO NORTHWEST H5 FLOW PREVAILS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. A RELATIVELY
WEAK THETA-E GRADIENT BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY, ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL; HOWEVER, A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, WITH LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE H7 FLOW, BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LOW, AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE CAPE SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000 TO
2000 J/KG WITH DECENT MID TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT SUPPORTED; HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40
MPH OR HIGHER, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SW WITH INCREASING SPEEDS BACK ABOVE 10 KTS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING (15-17Z) AND GUSTS NEARING 20KTS BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20/21Z WITH ALL SITES SEEING AT
LEAST A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS. CIGS STAYING VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...TT
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