657
FXUS63 KFGF 041744
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1244 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CUMULUS FIELD STARTING TO TAKE OFF ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND, AND
GETTING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE
NEXT 60 MINUTES. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO FAR MOST OF THE
CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 500 J/KG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL ND, BUT SHOULD SEE INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED POPS UP IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND
STARTED THEM A BIT EARLIER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. SOME RADAR RETURNS APPROACHING TOWNER COUNTY THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL ND. NOT A LOT SEEMS TO BE REACHING THE GROUND, BUT
ENOUGH SPOTS ON NDAWN ARE SHOWING UP WITH A TRACE TO KEEP THE 20
POPS WE HAVE GOING. MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER, BUT
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. A
FEW COOLER SPOTS HAVE BRIEFLY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BY MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WEST TO NORTHWEST H5 FLOW PREVAILS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. A RELATIVELY
WEAK THETA-E GRADIENT BOUNDARY WILL BE SITUATED FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY, ALLOWING A CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL; HOWEVER, A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, WITH LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE H7 FLOW, BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LOW, AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE CAPE SHOWS ROUGHLY 1000 TO
2000 J/KG WITH DECENT MID TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT SUPPORTED; HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40
MPH OR HIGHER, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CUMULUS FIELD IN SOUTHEASTERN ND.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WILL BE HIT AND MISS SO HAVE VCTS OR VCSH.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
THEN THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES BY SUNSET. WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING
UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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