564
FXUS63 KFGF 050320
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1020 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94. SEVERE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED, BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET THIS EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, THE HANDFUL OF REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED,
WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES LEFT OVER. THEY TOO SHOULD COME TO AN
END SOON. ADJUSTED GRIDS TO MATCH CLOUD COVER, OTHERWISE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
POP UP STORMS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE PRODUCED WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THAT
STORMS ARE WEAKENING, WITH LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE ITS
PLACE. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN
THROUGH SUNSET. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE
SUCH SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SD BORDER IS CURRENTLY CAUSING A CU
FIELD AND SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SD/NEBRASKA THURSDAY AND YET
ANOTHER ONE IN THE SAME AREA ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, A STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE WILL START DIGGING DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS, SHIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WARMING
TREND AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN.
..SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THERE HAS BEEN DESTABILIZATION TO 250-500 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS, SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V AT THE LOW LEVELS INDICATING WIND
POTENTIAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR COLLAPSING CORES. CURRENTLY
NOT EVEN GETTING TOO MUCH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY YET, BUT THE
CUMULUS TOWERS ARE SHOWING GLACIATION, SO WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR STRIKES POTENTIAL NEAR OUR DECISION SUPPORT SITES. BY LATE
EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ON THE WANE. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE
EVENING.
..RAINFALL AND SOME THUNDER IN SOUTH THURSDAY/FRIDAY
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER VORT LOBE TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK FRIDAY WILL BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. CAPE VALUES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN UNDER 500 J/KG SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM THE HREF AND CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THUNDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE HREF IS ALSO SHOWING AT
LEAST SOME HIGH PROBABILITIES OF WETTING RAIN OVER A TENTH OF AN
INCH, AND EVEN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
MORE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION THAT REMAINS
IS HOW WIDESPREAD POP UP THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. KEPT ANY MENTION OF POP UP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS CURRENTLY, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF SETS
AS STORMS AREAL COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT BECOMES MORE APPARENT.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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