255
FXUS63 KFGF 051727
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WIND GUSTS 60 MPH MAIN THREAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH LAKES COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH FURTHER RAIN MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ENE INTO SE ND
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STILL LOOKING AT THE
LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR SE ND AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE IS
MOVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES, WITH SOME NEAR SURFACE
SMOKE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS TIED
TO A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THAT HASN'T
SHIFTED MUCH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE
SHOWN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO THREE MILES AT TIMES, BUT ON
A ISOLATED BASIS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SE ND AND THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS INSTABILITY STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES
THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
MID CLOUD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN IN BETWEEN BEMIDJI AND
BAUDETTE. OTHERWISE THEY ARE MOVING OUT WITH NOTHING UPSTREAM
NEARBY SO TWEEKED POPS FOR THIS. NEXT AREA OF SHOWERS ARE INTO
FAR SW ND AND INTO WESTERN SD AND THE INCREASED POPS AFTER 18Z
FOR THIS SEEM REASONABLE INTO FAR SE ND AND PARTS OF WC MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE SHOWS PERSISTENT 700 MB MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS ND
INTO NORTHWEST MN...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR DICKINSON TO GRAND FORKS
TO THIEF RIVER FALLS TO BEMIDJI-BAUDETTE. FROM NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN INTO NW MN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL SHOWERS WITH TRACE TO
0.02 INCH AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST SO DID ADD
POPS INTO THE FCST THRU THE EARLY MORNING FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
TODAY IT SELF LOOKS VARIABLY CLOUDY, BUT IN GENERAL AREAS OF MID
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS (SPRINKLES) IN SOUTHEAST SASK AND SOUTHWEST MB AS WELL
THIS MORNING. 700 MB WAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST SD TONIGHT SEEMS WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS
LESS MOISTURE. BUT STILL WOULD APPEAR TO BE A FOCUS FOR A HIGH
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO SE ND/WC MN LATE THIS AFTN
INTO TONIGHT. REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVE MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS. SO HAVE A PRETTY BROAD POP AREA.
FRIDAY WILL SEE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN IN SE ND INTO
WC MN AS A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
SUNNIER NORTH OF THIS BAND THOUGH ON FRIDAY. COULD BE MID TO
LATE AFTN SHOWER/T-STORM BUT WOULD APPEAR INSTABILITY WISE THAT
ZONE IS NORTH OF THE BORDER. SO LEFT IT DRY NORTH OF FARGO-
BEMIDJI.
..MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTN/EARLY EVE
NEXT STRONGER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
CANADA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
500 MB LOW WILL BE A CORE OF 60-70 KT MID LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL
SPREAD INTO E ND BY 00Z SUNDAY. COLD FRONT AT THAT TIME WILL BE
MOVING THRU THE RRV AND NW MN AND COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AT
500 MB AND 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR NEAR THE FRONT...SPC DID PUT THE
AREA OF E ND/NW MN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVER STORMS SATURDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVE. MUCAPE NOT GREAT...MOSTLY 800 J/KG OR SO BUT
SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL WINDS COMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW
WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS NEAR GRAND FORKS SHOWS A DRY LAYER UP TO
ABOUT 800 MB AND FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC AND 850
MB UP THRU 500 MB AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. SO A PERIOD OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MN BY 12Z MONDAY AND AFTER A
DRYING OUT PERIOD OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY
TO SEE COOLER AIR AND SHOWERS DROP BACK SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE
AREA SUN AFTN INTO MONDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES NW MN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING A BKN CLOUD DECK TO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WITH A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, GFK, DVL, TVF, AND
BJI REMAIN DRY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/SPENDER
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPENDER
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