083
FXUS63 KFGF 061736
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BAND OF SHOWERS & T-STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU E ND
AND NW MN SATURDAY MID AND LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING MAY BRING
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON, BLOSSOMING
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH
OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE IT REMAINS QUIET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
AREAS OF FOG HAVE BURNED OFF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
CLEARING OF THE MID CLOUDS IS TAKING PLACE IN THE SOUTHERN RRV
WITH THE MAIN LIGHT RAIN AREA MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. ONLY
WADENA AND STAPLES INTO LIKELY SOUTHEAST OTTER TAIL COUNTY
HAVING RAIN NOW AND THIS WILL END BY 14Z. PATCHY GROUND FOG
FORMED NEAR SUNRISE SO PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS THRU 14Z MAINLY
SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY. WEBCAMS SHOW PATCHY COVERAGE.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THICKER SURFACE SMOKE IN FAR NORTHEAST
FCST AREA ROSEAU, WARROAD, BAUDETTE AND EAST INTO ONTARIO AND
ALONG BOUNDARY WATERS. THE SMOKE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY.
HOWEVER HIGH LEVEL SMOKE WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NE
ND/NW MN THRU THE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD 700/500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU CENTRAL ND/SD AT 08Z. AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST SD THRU CENTRAL MN, BRUSHING THE
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FCSTD AREA. ANTICIPATE THE MAIN WAVE
MOVES EAST BY 15Z WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING, BUT CONTINUED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA MAY CONTINUE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ANTICIPATED FARGO TO
BEMIDJI AND NORTH. THERE IS INCREASED SMOKE ALOFT OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY INTO PARTS OF TONIGHT....WITH SFC SMOKE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MN THIS MORNING, BUT THAT DOES MOVE OUT LATER THIS
AFTN AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LARGER
500 MB LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU CENTRAL CANADA.
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHS TODAY PRETTY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IN MANY
AREAS....THOUGH IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE LESS RAIN TODAY VS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON A BIT WARMER. HIGHS UPPER 70S NORTH VALLEY TO
LOW 70S FAR SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN.
..SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE WEEKEND IS THE 500 MB LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON TODAY AND DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD WINNIPEG
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS UPPER LOW DROP SOUTHEAST A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW REMAINS NORTH OF
THE BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO DEVILS LAKE AREA 21Z
OR SO AND REACH FAR NW MN AND E ND 23-01Z PERIOD. MODELS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS. THUNDERSTORMS DO LOOK TO FORM IN A
LINE WITH THE FRONT. NOW TO WHAT STRENGTH THEY WILL BE, THERE
ARE MANY QUESTIONS. CONSIDERING TIME OF THE YEAR AND TIME OF
DAY...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
EASTERN ND IS QUITE LIMITED....MU CAPES SUB 1000 J/KG AND DEW
PTS IN THE 50S. WHAT SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
WIND. WITH ANY STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WIND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
TO 60 MPH IS THE MAIN THREAT, ESP SOUTHERN PARTS OF LINE SOUTH
OF DEVILS LAKE. THE POSITION OF A 60 KT 500 MB JET AT 500 MB
COMING AROUND THE LOW WHICH AT THAT TIME WILL BE SASKATCHEWAN
WILL IMPINGE UPON THE FRONT. 700 MB WINDS 40KTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTION HIGH BASED...MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB SO POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
AFTER SATURDAY...
THAT BAND SWEEPS EAST QUICKLY....THEN DRYING COMES IN WITH WEST
WINDS, FOLLOWED BY COOLER, MOIST AIRMASS THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO NE ND/NW MN SUNDAY
AFTN/NIGHT AND GRADUALLY EXISTS MONDAY.
THURSDAY PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THAT PERIOD FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK IN MID JUNE DOES SHOW INGREDIENTS
THERE FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND PUTS
AREA IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 6 2025
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT MVFR MAY SNEAK IN AT KFAR
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A BLOSSOMING CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS THE REGION. CUMULUS WILL BREAK APART THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, JUST AFTER THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTIEST LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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