618
FXUS63 KFGF 242034
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHILE
THE THE MAIN SW FLOW AXIS IS SPLIT OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR REGION IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK IN CANADA. THE RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHER IMPACTS FROM RAIN
OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR LOCAL AREA. RISING
HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS AMPLIFIED SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AND THIS BRINGS A RETURN TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARDS SPLIT FLOW THEN AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO LOWERS THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
INCREASING BL TDS, AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG ML CAPE), WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH VALUED EXCEEDING 3000
J/KG WHICH MAY BE MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL ET AS THE PERIOD AND
AMPLITUDE OF SW FLOW ISN'T AS HIGH. AS THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO
APPROACH VEERING PROFILES AND GOOD SHEAR COULD SUPPORT INITIAL
DISCRETE CONVECTION (SUPERCELLS) DEEPENING ON THE SURFACE
PATTERN (FRONTS/REMNANT BOUNDARIES), OTHERWISE BETTER SEVERE
CHANCES WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD CARRY ALL MODES OF SEVERE, WHILE THE
SECOND WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND SCENARIO HOLDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT.
THE SEVERE THREAT LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH FLOW SHIFTING EAST, WITH SATURDAY ALSO
CARRYING A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE (AS HIGHLIGHTED BY MACHINE
LEARNING WITH 10% PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST).
THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER ON SUNDAY, AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN WITH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. THERE ARE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM SOME SMOKE IN THE REGION
(VIS AROUND 6SM), BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS CLEARING.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP IN NORTH
CENTRAL MN, WITH KBJI AND KTVF MONITORED FOR ANY IMPACTS IF THEY
DO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND START TO INCREASE ABOVE 10KT
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST ND BY MIDDAY, BUT
COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT KFAR DURING
THIS TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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