626
FXUS63 KFGF 250346
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. A FEW RADAR ECHOS ARE PUSHING
IN FROM SD, HOWEVER VERY LITTLE IS REACHING THE GROUND. AS WAA
AND FGEN ARRIVE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA. MUCH LIKE TONIGHT, IT
WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME FOR FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE AND
RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
QUIET THIS EVENING, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER TO SPEAK
OF. A FEW CUMULUS HAVE POPPED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE UP THERE THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHILE
THE THE MAIN SW FLOW AXIS IS SPLIT OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. OUR REGION IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE MAIN
STORM TRACK IN CANADA. THE RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHER IMPACTS FROM RAIN
OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OUTSIDE OUR LOCAL AREA. RISING
HEIGHTS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF LESS AMPLIFIED SW FLOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OUT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND AND THIS BRINGS A RETURN TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
A TREND TOWARDS SPLIT FLOW THEN AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER THE
ROCKIES AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO LOWERS THE PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
INCREASING BL TDS, AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING INSTABILITY (2000-3000 J/KG ML CAPE), WITH
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR HIGH VALUED EXCEEDING 3000
J/KG WHICH MAY BE MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCAL ET AS THE PERIOD AND
AMPLITUDE OF SW FLOW ISN'T AS HIGH. AS THE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO
APPROACH VEERING PROFILES AND GOOD SHEAR COULD SUPPORT INITIAL
DISCRETE CONVECTION (SUPERCELLS) DEEPENING ON THE SURFACE
PATTERN (FRONTS/REMNANT BOUNDARIES), OTHERWISE BETTER SEVERE
CHANCES WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST WHICH COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD CARRY ALL MODES OF SEVERE, WHILE THE
SECOND WOULD MAINLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED WIND THREAT THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THE SECOND SCENARIO HOLDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS OUT.
THE SEVERE THREAT LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES EAST WITH FLOW SHIFTING EAST, WITH SATURDAY ALSO
CARRYING A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE (AS HIGHLIGHTED BY MACHINE
LEARNING WITH 10% PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST).
THE SIGNAL IS WEAKER ON SUNDAY, AS THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. ADDED IN VCSH
TO KFAR AND KDVL. RAIN MAY ALSO SNEAK INTO KGFK AND KBJI, BUT
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IF RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO
PUSH THAT FAR NORTH. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR, WITH MVFR CEILINGS SNEAKING INTO KFAR TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DEPENDING IF THE SHIELD OF RAIN SHOWERS IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH OR SOUTH, THIS COULD SPEED UP OR DELAY THE ARRIVAL
OF MVFR AT KFAR. FINALLY, WHILE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FOG
WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THEREFORE, KEPT
IT OUT OF THE TAFS. IF FOG WERE TO FORM, KBJI WOULD SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST, ALBEIT STILL LOW CHANCE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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