126
FXUS63 KFGF 251944
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
244 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES WILL COME THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS
ALREADY MOVING OFF INTO MN/WI, HAVING BROUGHT OUR ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA, AND RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING AS
THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER VORT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
TOMORROW, AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO CANADA WILL
HELP PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. A FEW MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FRIDAY NIGHT PLAYS OUT. BY NEXT WEEK, FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THE
WEEKEND.
..FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY SEVERE CHANCES
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY, WHICH WILL HELP
BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK UP INTO ND. BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ND ALONG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. STILL THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR DISCRETE
CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR WEST, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNAL FOR CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS THAT COMES OUT INTO EASTERN
ND AND WESTERN MN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT, BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER IN GENERAL AND SEVERE
WEATHER IN PARTICULAR ARE HIGHEST IN OUR CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY, BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE KFAR AREA, BUT WILL BECOME MORE SHOWER
LIKE AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE NORTHERN TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
CURRENTLY VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR
LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOME OF THE MODELS BRING IFR EVEN
DOWN TO 400-500 FT, BUT THAT SEEMS A BIT LOW SO KEPT MOST SITES
ON THE MVFR TO HIGHER IFR RANGE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE
EAST, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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