525
FXUS63 KFGF 260428
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. IMPACTS WILL REMAIN ONLY TIED TO DRIZZLE AND MIST AS
INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AS INSTABILITY IS NONEXISTENT. IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED TO THIS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES WILL COME THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE IS
ALREADY MOVING OFF INTO MN/WI, HAVING BROUGHT OUR ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA, AND RADAR RETURNS ARE WEAKENING AS
THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES EAST. ANOTHER VORT CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS/MIDWEST
TOMORROW, AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO CANADA WILL
HELP PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. A FEW MORE WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FRIDAY NIGHT PLAYS OUT. BY NEXT WEEK, FLOW SHIFTS TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DIGGING DOWN COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT WILL BE A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE THAN THE
WEEKEND.
..FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY SEVERE CHANCES
SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY, WHICH WILL HELP
BRING DEEP MOISTURE BACK UP INTO ND. BEST SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER CENTRAL ND ALONG WITH 40 KTS OF DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR. STILL THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR DISCRETE
CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR WEST, WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING A
SIGNAL FOR CONSOLIDATION INTO AN MCS THAT COMES OUT INTO EASTERN
ND AND WESTERN MN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT
THIS POINT, BEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER IN GENERAL AND SEVERE
WEATHER IN PARTICULAR ARE HIGHEST IN OUR CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY, BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS SHOULD MAKE IT UP TO FAR AND
EVENTUALLY DVL WITHIN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR
THESE CEILINGS TO MAKE IT TO OTHER TAF SITES IS DIMINISHING.
THESE WILL IMPROVE FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 00Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM THE EAST AND
GENERALLY LIGHT AND BELOW 12 KNOTS. SOME LOCATIONS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS TOMORROW, BUT THE PROBABILITY
FOR LIGHTNING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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