115
FXUS63 KFGF 100853
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
WITH A RISK LEVEL OF 1 OUT OF 5.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A RISK LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5.
- HEAT RISK RISES INTO MODERATE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THE HEAT
INDICES MID TO UPPER 90S WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINITY IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALL DEALS WITH POSITION OF A WEAK
FRONT AND TIMING IT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA. AND IF
THIS FRONT CAN BREAK A CAP OF WARMER 850-700 MB AIR THAT WILL B
IN PLACE THRU THURSDAY EVENING. SYSTEM MOVES EAST FRIDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BUT THIS TROUGH MAY AID IN DEVELOPING
A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTEROON, WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE IN
OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FCST AREA. WEEKEND MAINLY DRY, AFTER
ANY EARLY SHOWERS SATURDAY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS AS THE UPPER
WAVE DEPARTS. NEXT SYSTEM WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR LATE TODAY AND NIGHT
ANOTHER VERY UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TODAY AND LOCATION, TIMING, INTENSITY. SPC HAS REALLY
CUT BACK ON SEVERE MESSAGING AND NOW HAS ROUGHLY THE NW 1/2
FCSDT AREA IN LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK. ISSUE IS LOCATION OF WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY AND AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT. SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST THRU 00Z FRI...WITH LOCATION FROM HRRR
LOOKING LIKE NEAR SOUTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG TO WINNIPEG REGION
INTO CENTRAL ND. AIRMAS AHEAD OF COVERING OUR AREA IS GENERALLY
CAPPED, THOUGH WEAKLY, WITH 700 MB TEMPS 11C RANGE ALONG WITH
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE RRV. CANNOT RULE OUT OF COURSE
SOME CONVECTION IN OUR NORTHWEST FCST AREA CLOSER TO ANY
BOUNDARY IN THE AFTN. NOT WORTHY FOR MORE THAN A 20 OR 30 POP
FAR NORTH VALLEY SOUTHWEST TOWARD JAMESTOWN OR BISMARCK. BEST
CHANCES FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE IN
SOUTHERN MANITOBA PARTICULARLY AROUND SOUTH END OF LAKE WINNIPEG
INTO WINNIPEG AREA AS LOOKS LIKE AN AREA OF MAXIMAIZED SFC CAPE
AND ENOUGH COOLING AT 700 MB TEMPS BY 00Z (+8C) TO GENERATE
POTENTIAL STORMS. SFC BOUNDADRY LIKELY TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BE ROUGHLY BAUDETTE TO WAHPETON
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF CONVECTION CAN CONTINUE NEAR
THE SFC BOUNDARY INTO THE NIGHT. MIXED SIGNALS ON CAMS, BUT MOST
DO NOT.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DEPENDING ON WHERE FRONT IT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ENOUGH INSTABIITY
(OVER 2500 J/KG) NEAR IT AND WITH LOWER 700 MB TEMPS AS THE 500
MB SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO S MANITOBA IN THE AFTN, STORMS MAY HAVE
AN EASIER TIME DEVELOPING. 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS RATHER
WEAK...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD I THINK BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS STORMS FORM. NOW BOUNDARY MAY BE FARTHER EAST
OUT OF THE AREA OR IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FCST AREA IN THE AFTN.
THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
..HEAT TODAY
TEMPS WILL REACH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES ABOUT AS
FCST PREVIOUSLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S...HIGHEST IN THE
VALLEY. LOCAL HEAT INDICES USING DEW POINTS FROM AWOS'S NEAR
CROPS WILL BE HIGHER. WET BULB GLOBE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOW 80S IN THE RRV AND E ND.
HEAT INDICES FORECAST DO NOT MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA SO NO
HEADLINES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THUR JUL 10 2025
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
TO THE EAST, IMPACTING KTVF AND KFAR. STORMS MAY HOLD TOGETHER
INTO KBJI, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, THEREFORE LEFT ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE TAF. WITH RECENT MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE AND
ANY IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY. ANY FOG WOULD BE FAVORED AT KGFK AND
KTVF. THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD FOR FOG HAS 6SM VISIBILITY
MENTIONED IN THE TAF. FINALLY, STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
HOW THEY EVOLVE. MADE NO MENTION OF THEM IN THIS SET OF TAFS,
HOPEFULLY THE DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR BY THE NEXT SET OF
TAFS ISSUANCE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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