512
FXUS63 KFGF 071752
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH FOCUS ON HIGH WINDS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY E ND INTO PARTS OF WC MN.
- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT
OCCURS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY.
- WITH ALREADY PRIMED SOILS IN SOME AREAS OF SE ND AND WC MN
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR DUE TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ND/EASTERN MT HAS PUSHED INTO
THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ND, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UPSTREAM OF THIS FA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE QUICKLY
RECOVERED, WITH DEW POINTS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE. THIS QUICK RECOVERY SHOULD HELP FOSTER STORM DEVELOPMENT
WEST OF THIS FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT CAMS HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF ANY LINEAR SEGMENT INTO OUR FA. HOPEFULLY,
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS CONVECTION BLOSSOMS IN MT AND
WESTERN ND, A CLEARER PICTURE WILL COME INTO VIEW OF HOW THINGS
WILL PAN OUT OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
PATCHY FOG IS DISSIPATING THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE OFF TO THE
WEST, ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN EASTERN MT/NORTHWESTERN
ND. THESE STORMS WILL HELP CREATE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS FA IN NORTHWESTERN ND. MUCH AS WE HAVE
SEEN NUMEROUS TIMES THROUGHOUT THE SUMMER, WE WILL BE ABLE TO
WATCH UPSTREAM HOW STORMS EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THEY
ARRIVE HERE. LATEST CAMS ADVERTISE THE ARRIVAL OF A LINEAR LINE
SEGMENT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AFTER 8 PM. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS
TO HOW INTENSE AND HOW FAR EAST THIS LINEAR SEGMENT WILL TRAVEL.
HOPEFULLY AS WE ENTER THE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO SEE THE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOW THEIR HAND, WE WILL GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON THIS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
RIGHT ON CUE BETWEEN 11 AND 1130 UTC GROUND FOG FORMED AND IS
EXPANDING IN CERTAIN AREAS....WAHPETON TO FARGO, LAMOURE TO
JAMESTOWN AND VALLEY CITY, AND PARK RAPIDS AREA TO NEAR BEMIDJI.
THIS WILL ALL DISSIPATE MID MORNING. OTHERWISE A MAINLY SUNNY
START TO THE DAY. MONITORING INCOMING HOURLY HRRR AND OTHER CAMS
TO SEE ABOUT LATER TODAY, AND STILL DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL
NOTHING STANDS OUT AS BEING A LOT DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER
THINKING. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MONTANA
INTO SOUTHERN SASK AND WESTERN ND SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST/EAST
INTO S MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHERN ND DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. LIKELY NOT SEVERE. THEN THINKING SOMEWHERE IN THAT
WILLISTON, MINOT, BISMARCK REGION STORMS FIRE THIS EVENING AND
TRACK EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY OF THESE DO VARY RUN TO
RUN. BUT IT IS THIS DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS KEY TO WHAT OCCURS
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB LOW IS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 08Z WITH LEAD 500 MB
SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU CENTRAL MT. T-STORMS AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE ARE OVER NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
LEVEL 850 MB JET.
..TODAY/TONIGHT SEVERE RISK
IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THAT SAID, FROM LOOKING OVER HREF, HRRR, RRFS SHOW TWO
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. ONE IS THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION IN MONTANA
MOVES EAST AND GROWS IN SIZE AND BECOMES A LINE OF STORMS AS
EARLY AS MIDDAY IN WESTERN ND AND THEN IT TRACKS EAST INTO THE
RRV AS SOON AS 00Z-02Z...WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO SD INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
NSSL MPAS CAMS. OTHER CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST MT MOVE
EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN 850
MB JET IS FOCUSED IN THE AREA FROM BETWEEN MINOT AND BISMARCK
TO JAMESTOWN AND T-STORMS IN THIS AREA GROW AND INTENSIFY AND
BECOME A LINE WITH HIGH WIND POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES EAST-
SOUTHEAST TOWARD FARGO, SE ND AND INTO NE SD OVERNIGHT. WIND IS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR BOTH SCENARIOS, THOUGH HIGHER WIND
SCENARIO IS THE SECOND ONE WITH OVERNIGHT LINE MOVING ESE INTO
THE LOW LEVEL JET.
IT DOES APPEAR THOUGH AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, EVEN THE
WARMEST 700 MB TEMP PROJECTIONS WILL KEEP LESS OF THE AREA IN A
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH EDGE OF 12C
TEMPS NEAR THE SD BORDER.
SPC OUTLOOK ISSUED AT 06Z IS FAVORING THE SECOND SCENARIO WITH
A POTENTIAL FAST MOVING HIGH WIND PRODUCING LINE OF STORMS ESE
FROM CENTRAL ND INTO SE ND AND WC MN, THOUGH HOW FAR EAST THE
WIND THREAT WILL BE IS UNCERTAIN AS YOU GET INTO MINNESOTA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A THREAT FOR SURE WHERE ANY OF THESE STORMS
TRACK. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS LIKELY THE STORMS WILL BE FAST
MOVERS SO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY NOT LAST LONG, BUT ALSO THERE
IS A CHANCE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY KEEP FUELING SOME STORMS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LINE LONGER THAN WOULD LIKE AND LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AREA WERE 2-7 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL 2 DAYS AGO IN SE ND AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR ANY FLOOD WATCH AND BETTER
ISSUED WHEN CONFIDENCE OF STORM TRACK IS HIGHER LATER TODAY.
..FRIDAY
LOOKING AT 00Z DATA AND ENSEMBLES, CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT IS LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO TO ME. SO MUCH
DEPENDS ON THURSDAY OVERNIGHT AND WHAT IS LEFT CLOUD WISE FRIDAY
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS, CAMS AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS REALLY
KEEP THE MORNING RATHER CLOUDY IN MUCH OF E ND AND NW MN FRIDAY
AND THRU EARLY AFTN FRIDAY ML CAPE VALUES ARE BLO 1000 J/KG.
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ML CAPE VALUES ON NSSL CAMS AND HRRR
BARELY HAVE 1000-1500 INTO SE ND INTO MN BY 00Z SAT. 00Z GFS IS
WAY HIGHER WITH 4000 J/KG ML CAPE IN FAR SE ND INTO MN 00Z SAT.
FRONTAL LOCATION LATE FRI AFTN LIKELY JUST WEST OF THE RRV AND
UNSURE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT NEAR FRONT TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION. BEST BULK SHEAR AND MID
LEVEL JET IS A BIT WEST OF THE INSTABILITY AREA. AS STATED SO
MUCH DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS UPCOMING NIGHT.
CAMS ARE NOT BULLISH AT ALL AND INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS MORE BEHIND THE FRONT , VS AHEAD OF FRONT IN AN
UNSTABLE BUT WHERE 700 MB TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME
CAPPING ISSUES.
SLIGHT COOLER AIR MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LOW MOVES FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
MANITOBA. CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, AND NORTHERN DVL BASIN MAINLY
AFTN AS ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO GENERATE CU.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE
TAF PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A LINE OF STORMS
TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. THIS
LINE OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WINDS, BUT TIMING AND THE
EXACT TERMINALS OF WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR IN THIS SET OF TAFS IS
NOT YET POSSIBLE. AS STORMS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN/WESTERN
TERMINALS. MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD, WHICH COULD BRING MORE
AVIATION IMPACTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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