168
FXUS63 KFGF 072342
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT, WITH HIGH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
- WITH ALREADY PRIMED SOILS IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN, LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT DUE
TO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS AGAIN FORECASTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH ALL HAZARDS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER HAVE IMPACTED OUR FAR NORTHWEST, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR ROTATION
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CAMS HAVE THAT ACTIVITY
LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA BY LATE EVENING, WITH OUR NEXT ROUND
COMING OUT OF EASTERN MT AND NOT MOVING IN UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL QUITE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW STORMS EVOLVE, SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SYNOPTICALLY, A TRANSIENT RIDGE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES.
TO OUR WEST, THE MAIN 500 MB WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TONIGHTS SEVERE
WEATHER IS STILL OVER MT, BUT A WEAKER ONE IS NEAR THE
MT/ND/CANADIAN BORDER. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A WARM FRONT SET UP FROM
NEAR BEACH NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MINOT INTO PEMBINA, SLOWLY
PUSHING NORTHWARD. RECENT MESOANALYSIS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOWS
DEW POINTS RISING IN TO THE MID 70S, WITH MLCAPE OF 3000 - 4000
J/KG, WHICH SHOWCASES JUST HOW BUOYANT OF AN AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF ND.
..SEVERE TONIGHT
THE MAIN AREA OF INITIAL STORM INITIATION LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THIS
FA, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT IN WESTERN/CENTRAL ND.
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR WILLISTON TO MINOT AND POINTS TO THE
SOUTH. EVEN FURTHER WEST BACK INTO MT, MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER 500 MB WAVE
UPSTREAM. THESE TWO AREAS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. HOW THIS EVOLVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THE INITIAL
AREA OF CONCERN THIS EVENING IN WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WOULD FOSTER
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. COULD ONE OF THESE HOLD TOGETHER INTO
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN? THEORETICALLY, BUT THE CHANCES OF THAT
SEEM TO BE LOW. OF MORE INTEREST IS THAT AS LONG AS THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY DOES NOT GROW UPSCALE, IT WILL LEAVE A FAIRLY INTACT
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE APPROACHING STORMS FROM MT. WITH A BUOYANT
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND STRONG SHEAR, THIS WOULD FOSTER THE
INCOMING CONVECTION FROM MT TO PROPAGATE THROUGH ND IN A LINEAR
MODE. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT OF 4000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, ALONG
WITH SUFFICIENT 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30 KNOTS AND DCAPE OF 1200 -
1400 J/KG, THIS COULD BE A POTENTIALLY INTENSE LINEAR SEGMENT
WHEN IT ARRIVES IN THIS FA, WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ON THE TABLE,
ALONG WITH QLCS TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
LINE.
ONE THING THAT SHOULD BE REITERATED IS THAT THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW TONIGHT PLAYS OUT. HOWEVER, IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO FULLY UTILIZE THE ENVIRONMENTAL INGREDIENTS THAT ARE IN
PLACE, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE FA, HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR. UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN
POINTS. 1) HOW DO STORMS AHEAD OF THE MCS, IF ANY IMPACT THE
ENVIRONMENT? THIS MORNINGS GUIDANCE HAD STORMS IN ND THIS AFTERNOON
GROWING UPSCALE AND PUSHING EAST EARLIER, WIPING OUT THE
ENVIRONMENT. MOST GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THIS IDEA, LEAVING A MUCH
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE FOR THE APPROACHING MCS TO
UTILIZE. THE DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCS
WILL DETERMINE ITS SEVERITY. 2) WHILE THE MCS WILL BE TRAVERSING
THROUGH A PRIME ENVIRONMENT UPSTREAM, ESPECIALLY IF ONLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
THIS FA, ESPECIALLY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE RIVER. IN MN, 0-3 KM SHEAR
IN PARTICULAR DROPS DOWN IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE OR EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY (STILL NEAR 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE) ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WELL ESTABLISHED, MATURE MCS TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION COUNTER THE THOUGHT THAT IT WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY. THIS MEANS PREDICTABILITY IS QUITE LOW WITH HOW FAR EAST
THE SEVERE THREAT HOLDS TOGETHER, OR IN THE CASE OF A HIGH END
EVENT, HOW FAR EAST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS HOLD TOGETHER.
..FLOODING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
SOME AREAS OF OUR FA HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (2-5
INCHES), PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF ND. WHILE THIS
IS A SECONDARY THREAT TO THE ANTICIPATED SEVERITY OF THE LINEAR
SEGMENT,IT IS WORTH A MENTION. STORM MOTIONS APPEAR QUICK
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THIS THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR RURAL AREAS. THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THOUGH, AS AREA
WEBCAMS DO SHOW SITTING WATER IN DITCHES IN SPOTS, AND RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PRODUCED A FLURRY OF FLOODING REPORTS IN
PLACES SUCH AS FARGO AND ALONG I94 THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
..SEVERE FRIDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HOW THIS
EVOLVES IS QUESTIONABLE, AS WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LEFTOVER IN
THE MORNING MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
THE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH KEEPING STORMS ON THE MN
SIDE OF THE FA. SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUPPORT AN ALL HAZARDS
DAY, BUT SHEAR VECTORS WOULD INDICATE A MESSIER MODE WITH TIME,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MAXIMUM HAIL SIZES AND THE TORNADO THREAT. AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE, WE COULD AGAIN SEE A WIND THREAT DEVELOP
WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS AND DCAPE NEAR 1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS THIS MAY BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHEAST, OR ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR FA, LIMITING POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM ANY HIGHER END WIND GUSTS. MUCH LIKE TODAY, MANY
QUESTIONS SURROUND TOMORROWS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. ONCE WE SEE
WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT, PREDICTABILITY FOR TOMORROWS SEVERE THREAT
WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
TAF SITES ALL CURRENTLY VFR, WITH SOME CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTH OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THINK OUR AIRPORTS BEST
CHANCES FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TONIGHT, EVEN
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MT
HEADS EAST. DELAYED THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN THE TAFS BY SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH STORMS CLEARING OUT OF THE MN SITES NOT UNTIL 12Z OR
EVEN AFTERNOON. SOME POSSIBILITY OF MVFR STRATUS BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT COMES DOWN, SO HAVE MOST TAF SITES
DROPPING IN CATEGORY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 KTS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH MORE VARIABLE DIRECTION AND SPEEDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. ND AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE A SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST OR
NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...JR
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