831
FXUS63 KFGF 081045
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT TODAY, DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER,
SURFACE HEATING AND FRONT LOCATION. SPC HAS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5
SEVERE RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RRV AND MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AS ANTICIPATED 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET KICKED IN AND WAS ABLE TO
MERGE A COUPLE OF LINES OF STORMS INTO ONE LINE, WITH HIGHEST
THREAT OF 70KT ALONG I-94 FROM LAST EVENING TO CURRENT AT 0830
UTC. THIS LINE OF STORMS AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL REACH THE
READ 930-10Z WHICH IS ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SHOWN BY
HRRR THE LAST FEW HOURS. BEST DCAPE AND MUCAPE AND NOSE OF 850
JET GOING FROM BISMARCK AREA TO FARGO BY 12Z.
SO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WORKED OUT PRETTY
WELL. LINE OF STORMS WILL PROCEED EAST INTO MN, WITH HIGHEST
WIND THREAT 11Z-14Z INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BUT UNCERTAINITY EXISTS
ON STRENGTH OF WINDS BY THAT TIME.
WHAT HAPPENS 14Z FRI TO 23Z FRI IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY WELL CONTINUE BUT SURFACE
INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND ALSO CLOUDS HOLD MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOW THINGS EVOLVE 23Z FRI TO 05Z SAT PERIOD IS WHEN IF
ANY STORMS ARE SEVERE IT WOULD BE THEN. HOW MUCH CLEARING MAY
OCCUR, CAN SURFACE INSTABILITY INCREEASE. HRRR WHICH HASNT BEEN
TOO BAD TONIGHT IS INDICATING STABLE AIRMASS BAUDETTE TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO VALLEY CITY NORTH. SO BASED ON THIS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MORE FAR SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. ALSO FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANTIICPATED TO BE AT 00Z BAUDETTE TO FARGO AND HRRR KEEPS
MAIN HEATING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA WITH A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST
WIND INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY DESPITE BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LIKELY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTTOM LINE, SEVERE THREAT LATE
AFTN/EVENING SEEMS TO BE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA FROM SE
ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. IF FRONT IS SLOWER, CLOUDS CLEAR OUT
MORE, SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THAT MAYBE
TO GRAND FORKS AND THIEF RIVER FALLS. LOOKS LIKE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ENDS BY 06Z SAT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE UPPER LOW AND SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND
THRU SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN MANITOBA WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ENTERING INTO NORTHERN ND SATURDAY INCLUDING DEVILS LAKE
TO GRAFTON TO ROSEAU NORTH.
LONG RANGE SHOWS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR T-STORMS MONDAY
NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THE BORDER AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO S MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. OTHERWISE THOUGH A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD TUES-WED. NEXT UPPER LOW IN OUR ENDLESS PATTERN OF
LOWS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN B.C> AND WASHINGTON STATE IS THU-SAT
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
THE LATE NIGHT MCS IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE MN COUNTIES EAST OF BJI AT
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE SYSTEM LEFT/IS LEAVING BEHIND BROAD COVERAGE
OF STRATIFORM RAIN AND BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILING WITHIN THE
MESOHIGH AND WAKE TROUGH. THE CLOUDS HOLD DURING THE MORNING AS THE
MESOSCALE PRESSURE FEATURES FADE IN FAVOR OF THE LARGER SCALE
SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH PROJECTED TO SET UP NEARLY ALONG THE
MN BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE THROUGH PEAK HEATING AND MOVE
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTHERN MN LOW PRESSURE THEN
MERGES WITH THE LARGER SYSTEM OCCLUDING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WHICH
SWEEPS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. NW WIND FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHIFTING WEST WITH AN INFUSION OF DRY AIR TO SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...BT
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