308
FXUS63 KFGF 081757
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT TODAY, DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER,
SURFACE HEATING AND FRONT LOCATION. SPC HAS LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5
SEVERE RISK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RRV AND MN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN MUCH OF THAT AREA WITH
EXPECTED MAIN STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AREA/COLD FRONT INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIMEFRAME. DO HAVE A FEW STORMS FORMING RIGHT NOW ON THE PUSH
OF SOUTHERLY FLOW STILL ON LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIKELY
FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS IN THE FAR EAST. STILL EXPECT THREATS
FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FRONT QUICKLY MOVING A MORE DEVELOPED LINE INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MN BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA AFTER INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR SOUTH.
PREVIOUS UPDATE
THE LINE OF STORMS FROM THE OVERNIGHT HAS EXITED THE FORECAST
AREA AND EXTENDS FROM WEST OF KENORA ONTARIO TO WEST OF INTL
FALLS TO NORTHWEST OF ST CLOUD. RAIN AREA BEHIND IT THEN THERE
ARE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED T-STORMS IN AN AREA FROM SOUTH OF
DICKINSON ND TO BISMARCK TO SOUTHEAST OF GRAND FORKS. OVERALL
THINKING AT LEAST SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYTIME TODAY AS WE ARE STILL IN ADVANCE OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH. WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT IS, LOOKS LIKE IN
CENTRAL ND. WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND FRONTAL
LOCATION THRU THE DAY TO SEE WHERE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON HRRR THAT IS MORE
LIKELY IN A REGION FROM NEAR BEMIDJI TO FARGO AND EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AS ANTICIPATED 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET KICKED IN AND WAS ABLE TO
MERGE A COUPLE OF LINES OF STORMS INTO ONE LINE, WITH HIGHEST
THREAT OF 70KT ALONG I-94 FROM LAST EVENING TO CURRENT AT 0830
UTC. THIS LINE OF STORMS AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL REACH THE
READ 930-10Z WHICH IS ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SHOWN BY
HRRR THE LAST FEW HOURS. BEST DCAPE AND MUCAPE AND NOSE OF 850
JET GOING FROM BISMARCK AREA TO FARGO BY 12Z.
SO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WORKED OUT PRETTY
WELL. LINE OF STORMS WILL PROCEED EAST INTO MN, WITH HIGHEST
WIND THREAT 11Z-14Z INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON STRENGTH OF WINDS BY THAT TIME.
WHAT HAPPENS 14Z FRI TO 23Z FRI IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY WELL CONTINUE BUT SURFACE
INSTABILITY WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND ALSO CLOUDS HOLD MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOW THINGS EVOLVE 23Z FRI TO 05Z SAT PERIOD IS WHEN IF
ANY STORMS ARE SEVERE IT WOULD BE THEN. HOW MUCH CLEARING MAY
OCCUR, CAN SURFACE INSTABILITY INGRESS. HRRR WHICH HASNT BEEN
TOO BAD TONIGHT IS INDICATING STABLE AIRMASS BAUDETTE TO THIEF
RIVER FALLS TO VALLEY CITY NORTH. SO BASED ON THIS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MORE FAR SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. ALSO FRONTAL
SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO BE AT 00Z BAUDETTE TO FARGO AND HRRR
KEEPS MAIN HEATING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA WITH A MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND INTO MN LAKES COUNTRY DESPITE BEING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LIKELY DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER. BOTTOM LINE, SEVERE
THREAT LATE AFTN/EVENING SEEMS TO BE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FCST
AREA FROM SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. IF FRONT IS SLOWER, CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT MORE, SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF
THAT MAYBE TO GRAND FORKS AND THIEF RIVER FALLS. LOOKS LIKE
SEVERE POTENTIAL ENDS BY 06Z SAT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE UPPER LOW AND SHOWERS ROTATE AROUND
THRU SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN MANITOBA WITH SOME CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ENTERING INTO NORTHERN ND SATURDAY INCLUDING DEVILS LAKE
TO GRAFTON TO ROSEAU NORTH.
LONG RANGE SHOWS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR T-STORMS MONDAY
NORTHERN AREAS NEAR THE BORDER AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST
INTO S MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. OTHERWISE THOUGH A RELATIVELY
QUIET PERIOD TUES-WED. NEXT UPPER LOW IN OUR ENDLESS PATTERN OF
LOWS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN B.C> AND WASHINGTON STATE IS THU-SAT
NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND
GENERAL TROUGHING AND WILL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND WILL
BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE EAST. TRIED TO TIME
OUT STORM THREAT THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WITH GREATEST
CHANCE FOR OUTRIGHT TS AT KTVF AND KBJI. KDVL IS POST FRONTAL
AND MIGHT SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT, OTHERWISE ALL
SITES MAY SEE SOME WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...MJB/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...MJB
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