033
FXUS63 KFGF 082033
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5
SEVERE RISK IS IN PLACE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MAIN LOW BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DEWPOINTS INT THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CONVERGENCE AREA ON MESOANALYSIS STILL INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WHERE CLOUD STREETS SHOWING
UP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALSO SHOWING THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING STILL EVIDENT. SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST HAD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH CAPPING GOING AWAY AS THE UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF
FORCING AS WELL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT MAIN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TOWARD 00-03Z ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE AND QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE A LIMITED TIME/SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURS AS TIMING/LOCATION COULD HAVE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ALMOST
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME STORMS DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE MORE ELEVATED, WEAKER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RRV AND POINTS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT, WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN UPPER LOW THE WRAPPING INTO ND/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
STATE, COOLER CONDITIONS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE QUIETER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, UNTIL MAYBE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
MORE SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH A WESTERLY TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND
GENERAL TROUGHING AND WILL IN THE WESTERN TAF SITES AND WILL
BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE EAST. TRIED TO TIME
OUT STORM THREAT THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WITH GREATEST
CHANCE FOR OUTRIGHT TS AT KTVF AND KBJI. KDVL IS POST FRONTAL
AND MIGHT SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TONIGHT, OTHERWISE ALL
SITES MAY SEE SOME WESTERLY GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...MJB
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