666
FXUS63 KFGF 090503
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1203 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DIMINISHING CONDITIONAL SEVERE STORM THREAT TIME WINDOW
TONIGHT, FROM A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
ELEVATED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BEHIND THE
MAIN COLD FRONTAL ZONE (JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST). A STRONGER CAP
HAS BEEN LIMITING POST FRONTAL INITIATION OUTSIDE OF WEAKER
SHOWERS, HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 700MB WAVE/CAA IS
SPREADING EAST AND WE ARE IN A 1-3HR WINDOW WHERE THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION COULD OCCUR. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 4AM FOR OUR SOUTHEAST, WITH THE LENGTH OF THE WATCH
COVERING THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FARTHER TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN MN. IN OUR AREA, AS THAT WAVE MOVES EAST WE
WILL LIKELY SEE THE THREAT END (WEST TO EAST) AND WILL ADJUST
WHICH COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS STALLED IN OUR SOUTHEAST, AND IN THE WARM
SECTOR HIGHER TDS AIDED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
CONTINUED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED INSTABILITY GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG. LOW STRATUS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN LIMITING DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/SURFACE BASED PARCELS, HOWEVER STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-45KT IS STILL SHOWN TO OVERSPREAD OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LEADING 700 MB WAVE PUSHES
EAST. FORCING INCREASES WITH THIS WAVE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ELEVATED/CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH
TIMING IN CAMS ALIGNED WITH INITIATION IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THAT WAVE PASSES. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE
IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS (POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS) WITH LARGE HAIL/WIND THE MAIN THREATS IN OUR
SOUTHEAST, THOUGH THE WINDOW AND COVERAGE IS NARROWED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..SYNOPSIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE MAIN LOW BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH DEWPOINTS INT THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN CONVERGENCE AREA ON MESOANALYSIS STILL INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WHERE CLOUD STREETS SHOWING
UP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALSO SHOWING THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING STILL EVIDENT. SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST HAD MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH CAPPING GOING AWAY AS THE UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS THE MAIN SOURCE OF
FORCING AS WELL. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT MAIN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION TOWARD 00-03Z ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A LINE AND QUICKLY MOVE TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE A LIMITED TIME/SEVERE THREAT ACROSS
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DEPENDING ON WHEN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OCCURS AS TIMING/LOCATION COULD HAVE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY ALMOST
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME STORMS DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE MORE ELEVATED, WEAKER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RRV AND POINTS FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT, WITH CLEARING AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN UPPER LOW THE WRAPPING INTO ND/SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
STATE, COOLER CONDITIONS AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE QUIETER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, UNTIL MAYBE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN
MORE SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH A WESTERLY TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN AND TAKES THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH IT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. DRY AIR FOLLOWS
ACROSS EASTERN ND FOR VFR IN CLEAR OR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THEN BRINGS INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD GRAZE THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KDVL TO KGFK TO KTVF, HOWEVER TIMING
IS BROAD AND DURATION HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY WHICH SUGGEST DEFERRING
A DEFINED FORECAST MENTION TO LATER UPDATES WITH AFTERNOON
OBSERVATIONS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO BECOME A FOCUS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IN EASTERN ND WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...DJR/BT
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