519
FXUS63 KFGF 091503
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WAITING ON WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS STARTING
TO POP UP IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BACK WESTWARD ACROSS ND. A
NICE, CLEAR VORT MAX IS SPINNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH
OF MINOT, WHICH SHOULD BE THE SPARK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PROPAGATES EAST. OTHERWISE FOR THIS
UPDATE JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, DELAYING THE
ONSET OF GUSTIEST WINDS JUST A TAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY, WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH THE LOW HEIGHTS,
FUNNELS COULD FORM, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. LOOKING FORWARD INTO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
..BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE H5 LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN, AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MN AND TAKES THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH IT FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. DRY AIR FOLLOWS
ACROSS EASTERN ND FOR VFR IN CLEAR OR SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA THEN BRINGS INCREASING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN TERMINAL
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING WHICH COULD GRAZE THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KDVL TO KGFK TO KTVF, HOWEVER TIMING
IS BROAD AND DURATION HAS LOW PREDICTABILITY WHICH SUGGEST DEFERRING
A DEFINED FORECAST MENTION TO LATER UPDATES WITH AFTERNOON
OBSERVATIONS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO BECOME A FOCUS IN RESPONSE
TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY IN EASTERN ND WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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