679
FXUS63 KFGF 091753
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WINDS ARE SLOWLY PICKING UP WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS
ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE FA, CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO FILL IN,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200. RADAR SHOWS SOME RETURNS
UPSTREAM, SO ADDED SOME 20 POPS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN/NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
WAITING ON WINDS TO INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS STARTING
TO POP UP IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BACK WESTWARD ACROSS ND. A
NICE, CLEAR VORT MAX IS SPINNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER NORTH
OF MINOT, WHICH SHOULD BE THE SPARK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS IT PROPAGATES EAST. OTHERWISE FOR THIS
UPDATE JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, DELAYING THE
ONSET OF GUSTIEST WINDS JUST A TAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY, WITH
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH THE LOW HEIGHTS,
FUNNELS COULD FORM, BUT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. LOOKING FORWARD INTO SUNDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
..BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE H5 LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD, ALLOWING PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO INCREASE. THERE IS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH ACROSS THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN, AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
POP UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS, PINWHEELING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL, KGFK AND KTVF. WITHIN THIS AREA OF
INCREASING CLOUDCOVER, SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. PROB30 AND TEMPO'S WERE USED TO TRY TO TIME THIS
ACTIVITY OUT. POP UP STORMS AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SMOKE WILL
START TO SPILL DOWN FROM CANADA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT KDVL.
BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD, SMOKE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH
VISIBILITY IMPACTS HARD TO DISCERN YET AT THIS RANGE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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