348
FXUS63 KFGF 092016
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWESTERN MN.
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE CUTOFF LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IS BRINGING WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 30 MPH SO FAR TODAY. AS THIS
LOW PUSHES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THE HIGHER WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH OR SO SHOULD OVERSPREAD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. IN THE LOWS WAKE, FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US IN A
QUIETER PATTERN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO ADVECT IN
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE, REDUCING AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY
MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
BY MIDWEEK, UPPER FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE AMPLITUDE, PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES, TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY THE SPREAD IN THE
NBM, WITH KGFK INDICATING A 9 DEGREE SPREAD FROM 81 TO 90 FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD
ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT TO ADVECT NORTHWARD,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE/SEVERITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
..THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS OVER
MUCH OF ND/NW MN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS IN NORTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWESTERN MN. AFTERNOON
HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE, ALBEIT SKINNY
ON SKEW-T'S, TO DEVELOP. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ALSO DECENT,
TOUCHING ON 30 KNOTS. WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW,
SURFACE VORTICITY IS PLENTIFUL, AND 3CAPE IS NEARING 100 J/KG.
MUCH OF THE CAPE AS INDICATED IN SOUNDING DATA IS BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. ADD IN SHORTER STORMS DUE TO THE LOWER EL FROM
THE NEARBY UPPER LOW, HAIL ABOVE THE SIZE OF PEAS IS NOT MUCH OF
A CONCERN. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT, LIGHTNING WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT, BUT FUNNEL CLOUDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
STORM THAT FORMS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF LIMITING FACTORS THOUGH,
THE MOST GLARING IS STORM MODE THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME MESSY IN
SHORT ORDER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
EVENING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
POP UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS, PINWHEELING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHWEST. CEILINGS WILL LOWER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL, KGFK AND KTVF. WITHIN THIS AREA OF
INCREASING CLOUDCOVER, SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. PROB30 AND TEMPO'S WERE USED TO TRY TO TIME THIS
ACTIVITY OUT. POP UP STORMS AND CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SMOKE WILL
START TO SPILL DOWN FROM CANADA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AT KDVL.
BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD, SMOKE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH
VISIBILITY IMPACTS HARD TO DISCERN YET AT THIS RANGE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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