101
FXUS63 KFGF 101430
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD WEATHER HAZARDS IS MINIMAL
THROUGH MID WEEK.
- A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
QUITE THE BATCH OF SMOKE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM OF THIS FA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONCUR, WITH AIR
QUALITY IN THE UNHEALTHY CATEGORY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OR SO
OF ND AND VISIBILITIES IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE. WHILE MAYBE A
TOUCH LATER THEN FORECASTED YESTERDAY, THIS SMOKE WILL PUSH INTO
EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON, THEN NW MN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, ADJUSTED GRIDS TO REFLECT
OBSERVATIONS, WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE STRATUS IS BRINGING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SERVE TO ALLOW CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE TO FILL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. WILDFIRE
SMOKE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
H5 TROUGH BRINGS RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME, SUPPORT FOR STRONG
STORMS REMAINS WEAK, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. MOVING INTO
TUESDAY, QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
70S FOR MOST AREAS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. H7 SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG H5 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE THIS
WEEK, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE RISK FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER; HOWEVER, THE PATTERN WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH STRATUS
OBSERVED AT KDVL. THIS CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING, BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. THUS FAR,
STRATUS HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO SPREAD EASTWARD; HOWEVER, MOST
GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS HOLDING ONTO AT LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING, WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
WORKING INTO VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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