580
FXUS63 KFGF 102347
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER COVERS MOST OF THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE
LIGHTNING, WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF A
QUARTER.
- A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
SMOKE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST INTO MINNESOTA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SMOKE IS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3
MILES, WITH SIMILARLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING, ALONG WITH REDUCED AIR QUALITY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH
HOW LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS GO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
THAT BROUGHT US SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY. IN TURN, SMOKE
HAS STARTED TO RETURN FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. SMOKE HAS BEEN DENSE
UPSTREAM, REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO A MILE IN SPOTS THIS MORNING
NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. SMOKE SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE WHEN IT ARRIVES
IN THIS FA, BUT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL STILL
BE EXPERIENCED. A 500 MB JET ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A TROUGH
TO DIG DOWN INTO THE DAKOTA'S. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING SMOKE
SLOWLY EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN FA. THIS TROUGH HOWEVER WILL ALSO SPARK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
BY MIDWEEK, UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE BUOYANCY TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS A 500 MB WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION. A RIBBON OF
MLCAPE OF UP TO 1500 J/KG SHOULD SNAKE NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO NORTHWESTERN MN. SHEAR ISN'T GREAT, BUT IS
THERE, OCCASIONALLY TOUCHING ON 30 KNOTS WHEN LOOKING AT 0-6 KM
VALUES. SOUNDING ADVERTISE AN INVERTED V, WHICH DOES ALLOW DCAPE TO
CLIMB INTO THE 800 TO 900 J/KG RANGE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. THOSE
VALUES RELY ON US GETTING UP INTO THE MID 80S THOUGH, WHICH WITH
SMOKE AND CLOUDS (AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY HERE AND FURTHER WEST),
COULD BE HARD TO ACHIEVE. ALL TOLD, WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL EVENTS WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER THE SUMMER IN A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETER SPACE, WHICH USUALLY HAVE RESULTED IN VERY ISOLATED,
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THEREFORE, KEPT POTENTIAL HAZARDS AS
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
MORE STORMS BEING ON THE 'STRONG' SIDE THEN THE 'SEVERE' SIDE OF
THE TABLE.
..ACTIVE LATE WEEK
AS WE RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MID TO ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK,
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION, WITH DEW POINTS BY
THURSDAY RETURNING TO THE 70S. HOWEVER, TIMING OF WAVES THAT COULD
SPARK STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE. ALL
SAID, THE MOST INTERESTING DAY RIGHT NOW IS THURSDAY, WHEN A LARGE
POOL OF CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE
OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE TIMING OF THE FORCING RESPONSIBLE FOR
GETTING STORMS GOING THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DETERMINE THE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND THUS IMPACTS TO THIS FA. MACHINE LEARNING
IS ALSO HINTING ON THURSDAY BEING A DAY TO WATCH CLOSER, AS EVEN IF
THE MAIN FORCING IS FURTHER WEST, STORMS OVERNIGHT COULD PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. DEFINITELY A TIMEFRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS
IT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WITHIN THE REGION WILL BE SMOKE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AS WELL AS MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 3SM ARE ANTICIPATED, AND HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE TAFS THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z, DAYTIME MIXING MAY
HELP PUSH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE 3-6SM RANGE, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEGREE OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DESPITE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE REDUCING OVERALL VISIBILITY. THERE IS A 40%
CHANCE VISIBILITY IS REDUCED TO THE 1-2SM RANGE FROM SMOKE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE 12Z. THICK SMOKE ALOFT WILL ALSO
RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z, BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE LATE MORNING TO AROUND 13KT, GUSTING TO 20KT, OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 45KT. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY STORM IMPACTING TAF SITES MEANS THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD WAS
OMITTED FROM THE 00Z SET OF TAFS. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THIS POTENTIAL, THEY'LL BE ADDED; HOWEVER, THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...CJ
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