387
FXUS63 KFGF 110852
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDS COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..SYNOPSIS
H5 TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, ALONG WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. LOOK FOR COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TUESDAY, ALONG
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMS AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN ONCE MORE ON THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND MIDDAY WITH
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY AS MLCAPE VALUES STRUGGLE TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A THETA-E GRADIENT
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL AXIS OF
DEVELOPMENT, PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO ALLOW CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT THE MENTION OF
SUPERCELLS OR HYBRID CLUSTERS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
THIS SUPPORT EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
SHALLOW LAYER OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, ALONG WITH DCAPE
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 700 TO 900 J/KG. IF A SUPERCELL IS
ABLE TO FORM, HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT SPLITTING, WITH RIGHT-MOVING STORMS
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF TORNADOES. HAZARDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH,
BRIEF TORNADOES, AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY, WITH CONDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF NORTH DAKOTA SEEING THE CHANCE TO
REACH 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
ACCESS TO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE, WITH MUCAPE
APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS OF 45 KNOTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD, PROVIDING LIFT
TO THE REGION ALONG ONE OF SEVERAL THETA-E AXES. EXACT TIMING
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION WITHIN THE REGION WILL BE SMOKE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 3SM ARE ANTICIPATED, AND HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE TAFS THROUGH 14Z. WHILE KDVL HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY
SMOKE FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW, THERE IS NOW LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN
WHEN REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BEGIN WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO MINNESOTA. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE IS NOT PROGRESSING AS
QUICKLY EASTWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. REGARDLESS, STILL
EXPECTING SMOKE TO EVENTUALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT SITES LIKE
KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, AND KBJI BY 17Z MONDAY. WILL KEEP AMENDING
START OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT THESE SITES BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS. THICK SMOKE IS STILL JUST ALOFT, AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 14Z, BUT
STILL HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE LATE MORNING TO AROUND 13KT, GUSTING TO 20KT, OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 45KT. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY STORM IMPACTING TAF SITES MEANS THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD WAS
OMITTED FROM THE 06Z SET OF TAFS. AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THIS POTENTIAL, THEY'LL BE ADDED; HOWEVER, THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
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