617
FXUS63 KFGF 112058
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
358 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY THE
MINNESOTA PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. HAZARDS COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN THEN IN PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. OVERALL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, WITH GENERAL TREND OF WEAK
WAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FLOW TO KEEP THE AREA IN
ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE
GENERALLY WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SCOURS OUT THE AIRMASS. NORTH DAKOTA
AREAS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING, WITH MINNESOTA AREAS IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
..SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT
A CONDITION SEVERE THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED WINDOW EXPECTED WITH
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA. CAPPING COMES INTO PLAY, WITH DEVELOPING
ENOUGH INSTABILTY TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. TIMING COMES INTO
PLAY WITH HODOGRAPHS TO GET ANY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH
FOR WIND/HAIL, BUT ISSUE WILL BE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE THEN MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH ANY CHANCE EXPECTED TO WANE INTO
LATER EVENING WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LACKING AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. TRIED TO TIME
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE EASTERN TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING. WINDS TO INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AT KBJI. VSBYS REMAIN LOWER WITH THE
WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND EXPECT THE
SMOKE TO CLEAR OUT WITH ANY RAIN/FRONTAL PASSAGE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...MJB
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