298
FXUS63 KFGF 112345
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY THE
MINNESOTA PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. HAZARDS COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
LINEAR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST, WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF 1500+ J/KG ML CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30KT, THAT
HAS SUPPORTED A FEW STRONGER CORES PULSING UP AT TIMES. OUTSIDE
OF ONE REPORT OF SEVERE HAIL IN SARGENT COUNTY, THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR HIGHER VOLUMES OF SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STRONGER CORES
AND GUSTS 35-45 MPH. WE MAY STILL SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOW LEVELS FULLY
DECOUPLE. THERE IS ALSO A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN THEN IN PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. OVERALL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, WITH GENERAL TREND OF WEAK
WAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FLOW TO KEEP THE AREA IN
ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE
GENERALLY WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SCOURS OUT THE AIRMASS. NORTH DAKOTA
AREAS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING, WITH MINNESOTA AREAS IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
..SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT
A CONDITION SEVERE THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED WINDOW EXPECTED WITH
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA. CAPPING COMES INTO PLAY, WITH DEVELOPING
ENOUGH INSTABILTY TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. TIMING COMES INTO
PLAY WITH HODOGRAPHS TO GET ANY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH
FOR WIND/HAIL, BUT ISSUE WILL BE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE THEN MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH ANY CHANCE EXPECTED TO WANE INTO
LATER EVENING WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LACKING AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SEVERAL LINEAR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST MN, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ND. ACTIVITY IS GOING TO TEND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND THE SUN SETS
STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. SMOKE IS STILL REDUCING VIS TO THE
3-6SM RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, BUT AS IT PASSES THERE
SHOULD BE IMPROVING TRENDS BACK TO VFR WHICH SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR MVFR STATUS DEVELOPING IN NORTH CENTRAL
MN THAT MAY IMPACT KBJI LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING,
WITH INCREASING GRADIENT AND MIXING TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTS PERIODICALLY AS HIGH AS 30KT (MAINLY IN
ND).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...DJR
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