883
FXUS63 KFGF 120439
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY CAUSING
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTHEAST, AND WITH IT THE MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE MID LEVEL
WAVE AND AT LEAST SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS OR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, HOWEVER THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER FOR THE EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
LINEAR CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST, WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS STILL AN
AXIS OF 1500+ J/KG ML CAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30KT, THAT
HAS SUPPORTED A FEW STRONGER CORES PULSING UP AT TIMES. OUTSIDE
OF ONE REPORT OF SEVERE HAIL IN SARGENT COUNTY, THE TREND HAS
BEEN FOR HIGHER VOLUMES OF SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STRONGER CORES
AND GUSTS 35-45 MPH. WE MAY STILL SEE A MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL/WIND THREAT THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LOW LEVELS FULLY
DECOUPLE. THERE IS ALSO A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO WESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN THEN IN PLACE TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. OVERALL WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT, WITH GENERAL TREND OF WEAK
WAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FLOW TO KEEP THE AREA IN
ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE
GENERALLY WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND SCOURS OUT THE AIRMASS. NORTH DAKOTA
AREAS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING, WITH MINNESOTA AREAS IMPROVING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
..SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT
A CONDITION SEVERE THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED WINDOW EXPECTED WITH
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA. CAPPING COMES INTO PLAY, WITH DEVELOPING
ENOUGH INSTABILTY TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. TIMING COMES INTO
PLAY WITH HODOGRAPHS TO GET ANY POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH
FOR WIND/HAIL, BUT ISSUE WILL BE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE THEN MORE
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH ANY CHANCE EXPECTED TO WANE INTO
LATER EVENING WITH INSTABILITY POTENTIAL LACKING AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND MOST OF
NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL MN WITH A
PERIOD OF IMPACTS 10-14Z AT KBJI. EVENTUALLY THE NEXT ROUND OF
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY (LATE
MORNING) WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS TO MVFR AS THE
MAIN AREA OF SMOKE PASSES. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
SMOKE CONCENTRATION WITH THIS PERIOD OF SMOKE AT THE SURFACE
(MORE MAY REMAIN ALOFT), WHICH WOULD DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VISIBILITY IMPACTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONCENTRATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING, THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COULD RESULT IN SMOKE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH WILL BE HARD
TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS RANGE. I ADJUSTED VISIBILITY TRENDS TO
REFLECT THE SMOKE ARRIVAL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING TUESDAY, AND
GUSTS 20-30KT MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE SETTING SUN/LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...DJR
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