737
FXUS63 KFGF 120937
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
437 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER, REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN MOST
AREAS. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, H5 FLOW FLATTENS WITH H7 TROUGHING
FORMING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A LARGER UPPER LOW MOVES EAST HEADING
INTO THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK H7 TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, TIMING WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND SPEED
OF EACH H7 TROUGH.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY
ANOTHER SURGE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT VISIBILITY AND
AIR QUALITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. H7 TROUGHING WILL BE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG H5 FLOW, WITH MOST GUIDANCE BRINGING THE BEST
FORCING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FORM IN SOUTH DAKOTA, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. AN 850MB JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS
FURTHER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. FOR THURSDAY, UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AS A
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE POOLING,
ALLOWING SBCAPE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE RANGE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL MODES, WITH STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH POTENTIAL
AND THE RESULTANT RISK FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WHILE DETAILS ARE CERTAIN, THE CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IS WORTH MENTIONING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND MOST OF
NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN NORTH CENTRAL MN WITH A
PERIOD OF IMPACTS 10-14Z AT KBJI. EVENTUALLY THE NEXT ROUND OF
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY (LATE
MORNING) WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS TO MVFR AS THE
MAIN AREA OF SMOKE PASSES. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
SMOKE CONCENTRATION WITH THIS PERIOD OF SMOKE AT THE SURFACE
(MORE MAY REMAIN ALOFT), WHICH WOULD DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR VISIBILITY IMPACTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN
CONCENTRATIONS LATER IN THE EVENING, THOUGH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE COULD RESULT IN SMOKE REMAINING TRAPPED NEAR THE
SURFACE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH WILL BE HARD
TO ANTICIPATE AT THIS RANGE. I ADJUSTED VISIBILITY TRENDS TO
REFLECT THE SMOKE ARRIVAL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH DAYTIME MIXING TUESDAY, AND
GUSTS 20-30KT MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION COMBINED WITH THE SETTING SUN/LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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