309
FXUS63 KFGF 121821
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND A 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SMOKE HAS BEEN SLOW TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MIX
TOWARD THE SURFACE. SMOKE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES IT DOES
INDEED REACH THE SURFACE, HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT BE AS DENSE OF
CONCENTRATION AS PERHAPS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.
INCREASED POPS IN NORTHWEST MN NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST MB PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA. BY AFTERNOON, THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH
INTO AN AREA OF WEAK BUT PRESENT INSTABILITY INTO THE ICE
GROWTH LAYER, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTNING/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS MORNING REMAINS PRIMARILY IN THE MID LEVELS;
HOWEVER, UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE JUST
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING THESE HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER, REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN MOST
AREAS. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, H5 FLOW FLATTENS WITH H7 TROUGHING
FORMING TO THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A LARGER UPPER LOW MOVES EAST HEADING
INTO THURSDAY, WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK H7 TROUGHS
TRAVERSING THE FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, TIMING WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION AND SPEED
OF EACH H7 TROUGH.
..WILDFIRE SMOKE TODAY
ANOTHER SURGE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT VISIBILITY AND
AIR QUALITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHWARD
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. H7 TROUGHING WILL BE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST ALONG H5 FLOW, WITH MOST GUIDANCE BRINGING THE BEST
FORCING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO FORM IN SOUTH DAKOTA, THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA. AN 850MB JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COULD MAINTAIN THE SUPPORT FOR STRONG STORMS
FURTHER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. FOR THURSDAY, UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AS A
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG THETA-E
GRADIENT WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT AND MOISTURE POOLING,
ALLOWING SBCAPE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE RANGE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL MODES, WITH STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH POTENTIAL
AND THE RESULTANT RISK FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, THE CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IS WORTH MENTIONING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VFR WITH PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT TAF SITES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILDFIRE SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE
REDUCING VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 3SM IS THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS. SMOKE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, LASTING UNTIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT, GUSTS TO 23KT, WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AROUND 01Z BEFORE LESSENING BELOW 10KT. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED DECK BETWEEN 3 TO 5 KFT, MORE BROKEN DECK
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITHIN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL NOT IMPACT TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page