482
FXUS63 KFGF 130914
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
414 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 2 OF 5 RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND A 1 OF 5 RISK ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY, THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST H5 PATTERN PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL CAMS SHOW
AN 850MB JET FORMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH DAKOTA, THEN
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z. MUCAPE RANGES ANYWHERE FROM 2000 TO
2500 J/KG ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS LACKING, HOWEVER, WHICH COULD INHIBIT ORGANIZATION.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA,
WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INHIBITION INITIALLY; HOWEVER, WITH
STRONG FORCING AND HIGH INSTABILITY (3500- 4500 SBCAPE), WE
SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY, THE SUPPORTED STORM MODE FAVORS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR HYBRID CLUSTERS, FOLLOWED BY UPSCALE
GROWTH AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MCS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS
MOVE EAST. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LARGE HAIL, WITH
CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VFR WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILDFIRE SMOKE
NEAR THE SURFACE, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 4SM
SHOULD THE INVERSION TRAP IT NEAR THE SFC, IS THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTOR TO MVFR POTENTIAL. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT (ASIDE FROM
THE SMOKE) AND CALM WINDS BEFORE PICKING UP LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE DVL
AREA WED AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15KTS OR SO IN THE DVL
OTHERWISE SE AT 5-10 KTS FOR OTHER SITES
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...TT
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