530
FXUS63 KFGF 131137
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 2 OF 5 RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND A 1 OF 5 RISK ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1-3 MILES, HOWEVER, THERE
HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT 1/4 MILE OBSERVATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY, THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
ACTIVITY PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH SOUTHWEST H5 FLOW PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST H5 PATTERN PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL H7 SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM SEVERAL CAMS SHOW
AN 850MB JET FORMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTH DAKOTA, THEN
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 06Z. MUCAPE RANGES ANYWHERE FROM 2000 TO
2500 J/KG ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS LACKING, HOWEVER, WHICH COULD INHIBIT ORGANIZATION.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA,
WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INHIBITION INITIALLY; HOWEVER, WITH
STRONG FORCING AND HIGH INSTABILITY (3500- 4500 SBCAPE), WE
SHOULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INITIALLY, THE SUPPORTED STORM MODE FAVORS
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR HYBRID CLUSTERS, FOLLOWED BY UPSCALE
GROWTH AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR MCS/QLCS DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS
MOVE EAST. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LARGE HAIL, WITH
CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KTVF, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFK
DUE TO PATCHY FOG AND BR. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL WITH PATCHY GROUND FOG AND WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE
VICINITY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD, BUT WILL
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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